WHAT: Malaysia's Dec inflation index and Jan 26 rates meeting
WHEN: Wednesday, Jan 20, 0900 GMT for inflation
Tuesday, Jan 26, 1000 GMT for rates decision
REUTERS FORECAST:
-- Inflation
- Median +1.1 pct yr on yr vs -0.1 pct in November. Forecast range of 14 economists was 0.4 pct to 1.5 pct. -- Rates
- All 14 economists forecasted rates will be held steady at 2.0 percent with most expecting a hike in the second half of 2010. FACTORS TO WATCH: December is expected to register the first annual rise in inflation since deflation started in June. If headline inflation comes in as expected, full year inflation for 2009 is seen at about half a percent.
MARKET IMPACT: Markets are unlikely to react. Although inflation has returned, largely due to high base effects from fuel prices dissipating, economists say it would not inhibit growth as inflation is expected to remain subdued. Impact on monetary policy would therefore be negligible. The overnight policy rate (OPR) has been on hold for six straight meetings now.
Forecasts:
December CPI OPR (Jan 26)
(pct change vs yr ago) (pct)
Standard Chartered 0.4 2.0
OCBC 0.6 2.0
JP Morgan 0.8 2.0
TA Securities 0.9 2.0
DBS 1.0 2.0
Maybank 1.0 2.0
Action Economics 1.1 2.0
Bank Islam 1.1 2.0
Forecast 1.1 2.0
IdeaGlobal 1.1 2.0
ING 1.2 2.0
Citibank 1.2 2.0
Barclays 1.4 2.0
HSBC 1.5 2.0
Median 1.1 2.0
(Reporting by Royce Cheah; Editing by Kim Coghill) Keywords: MALAYSIA ECONOMY/INFLATION (royce.cheah@thomsonreuters.com; +603 2333 8040; Reuters Messaging; royce.cheah.reuters.com@reuters.net; bureau email: areuters@gmail.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
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