NZ consumer confidence falls in July - survey

WELLINGTON, July 22 (Reuters) - New Zealand consumer confidence fell in July to its lowest level in nearly a year, but still remained positive although people were less optimistic about their own and the economy's outlook, a survey showed on Thursday.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer confidence index fell six points to 115.6, the second consecutive monthly decline, and the lowest since September 2009. The index hit a three-year high in January at 131.4.

A reading above 100 shows optimism, and a reading below indicates pessimism.

A sluggish housing market, and price rises for power and fuel because of the newly expanded emissions trading scheme, were seen weighing on sentiment and offsetting the improved labour market, pending tax cuts and falls in longer term lending rates.

'But it seems the negatives are outweighing the positives in the consumers' minds at present,' said ANZ-National senior markets economist Khoon Goh in a statement.

Respondents' were more pessimistic about their own current financial conditions with a net 14 percent saying they were worse off than a year ago from 5 percent in June.

Households were also less positive about their own outlook over the next 12 months, with a net 26 percent expecting an improvement, down from 29 percent the month before.

The survey of around 1,000 people showed respondents were also less optimistic about the near-term outlook for the overall economy, with a net 3 percent seeing an improvement from 18 percent last month.

The only item to show an improvement was the expectation that the economy will improve over the next five years, rising to 42 percent from 39 percent.

The survey offered further evidence of consumer caution, which has been a feature of the patchy economy so far this year.

Next week, the Reserve Bank of NZ is expected to raise its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3 percent, as it gradually removes the support of record low rates for the recession hit economy.

However, the patchy and fragile nature of growth has led the bank to say the speed and extent of further rate rises will depend on financial market conditions and the strength of data.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect rate rises through the rest of the year as the economic recovery gathers momentum.

A net 22 percent believed it is a good time to buy a major household item, from 26 percent in June. Analysts and retailers have speculated on whether a rise in the value-added goods and services tax in October may prompt consumers to bring forward purchasing decisions for major household items.

'It is not pointing to a big spending surge that the retail sector had been hoping for,' said Goh.

(Reporting by Gyles Beckford; Editing by Ed Davies)

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