ROME, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Italian industrial output edged up
a weaker than expected 0.1 percent in July after a 0.5 percent
gain the month before, national statistics bureau ISTAT reported
on Friday.
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FORECASTS
The median forecast of a Reuters poll of 22 analysts had projected a July rise of 0.5 percent. Forecasts spanned a range from -0.5 percent to +1.5 percent.
KEY DATA
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION July June May
Mth/mth pct change (adjusted) 0.1 0.5r 1.0
Yr/yr pct change (adjusted) 4.8 8.1r 7.3
Yr/yr pct change (unadjusted) 1.7 8.0r 10.5
NOTE: BASE 2005=100.
(r) indicates revised figures.
ISTAT provided the following breakdown by broad product group
adjusted mth/mth pct change
July
Consumer goods -0.1
Investment goods 0.1
Intermediate goods -0.4
Energy goods 2.1
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COMMENTARY
LOREDANA FEDERICO, UNICREDIT RESEARCH
'It is slightly below expectations. We expected a slowing in the growth rate to begin in August. The good performance we saw in the first part of the year will see a moderation in the second half.
PAOLO MAMELI, INTESA SANPAOLO
'A result certainly below expectations: looking at the details of the energy component (+2,1% on the month) we can see that stripping this out the result would have been a 0.1 percent fall.
'Of interest is the fall in the durable goods sector, already seen in the previous month, which can be put down to the collapse of the auto market.
'If there is flat growth in August and September industrial production would grow nonetheless 0.8 percent in the third quarter. According to our forecasts after the first two very positive quarters, in the July-September period we will see an improvement in production to the tune of 1 percent.
'We do not share the OECD forecast for negative GDP in the third quarter.'
NICK KOUNIS, ABN AMRO
'I think that what we have seen is that the world trade cycle has already peaked. We are also seeing a less positive impulse from restocking more generally.
'So we think that we are likely to see a more moderate growth rate of industrial production going forward and this number could be an early sign of that.'
GILLES MOEC, DEUTSCHE BANK
'The figure is a bit disappointing and that echoes what we saw in German output earlier this week. It suggests that we are seeing a loss of momentum in world demand.
'It's true that French output was good today but France is a little less sensitive to fluctuations in demand outside the EU.
'Still, as regards Italy the dynamics of the last three months are still pretty decent and we still have a carryover effect on industrial output of +0.7 or +0.8 percent compared with the average of the second quarter.
'We expect Q3 GDP to slow but not too badly. We have a forecast of a +0.3 percent rise, but there are now quite strong downside risks to that.'
(Gavin Jones, Catherine Hornby, Rome newsroom +39 06 8522 4350, fax +39 06 854 0568 rome.newsroom@news.reuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
FORECASTS
The median forecast of a Reuters poll of 22 analysts had projected a July rise of 0.5 percent. Forecasts spanned a range from -0.5 percent to +1.5 percent.
KEY DATA
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION July June May
Mth/mth pct change (adjusted) 0.1 0.5r 1.0
Yr/yr pct change (adjusted) 4.8 8.1r 7.3
Yr/yr pct change (unadjusted) 1.7 8.0r 10.5
NOTE: BASE 2005=100.
(r) indicates revised figures.
ISTAT provided the following breakdown by broad product group
adjusted mth/mth pct change
July
Consumer goods -0.1
Investment goods 0.1
Intermediate goods -0.4
Energy goods 2.1
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
COMMENTARY
LOREDANA FEDERICO, UNICREDIT RESEARCH
'It is slightly below expectations. We expected a slowing in the growth rate to begin in August. The good performance we saw in the first part of the year will see a moderation in the second half.
PAOLO MAMELI, INTESA SANPAOLO
'A result certainly below expectations: looking at the details of the energy component (+2,1% on the month) we can see that stripping this out the result would have been a 0.1 percent fall.
'Of interest is the fall in the durable goods sector, already seen in the previous month, which can be put down to the collapse of the auto market.
'If there is flat growth in August and September industrial production would grow nonetheless 0.8 percent in the third quarter. According to our forecasts after the first two very positive quarters, in the July-September period we will see an improvement in production to the tune of 1 percent.
'We do not share the OECD forecast for negative GDP in the third quarter.'
NICK KOUNIS, ABN AMRO
'I think that what we have seen is that the world trade cycle has already peaked. We are also seeing a less positive impulse from restocking more generally.
'So we think that we are likely to see a more moderate growth rate of industrial production going forward and this number could be an early sign of that.'
GILLES MOEC, DEUTSCHE BANK
'The figure is a bit disappointing and that echoes what we saw in German output earlier this week. It suggests that we are seeing a loss of momentum in world demand.
'It's true that French output was good today but France is a little less sensitive to fluctuations in demand outside the EU.
'Still, as regards Italy the dynamics of the last three months are still pretty decent and we still have a carryover effect on industrial output of +0.7 or +0.8 percent compared with the average of the second quarter.
'We expect Q3 GDP to slow but not too badly. We have a forecast of a +0.3 percent rise, but there are now quite strong downside risks to that.'
(Gavin Jones, Catherine Hornby, Rome newsroom +39 06 8522 4350, fax +39 06 854 0568 rome.newsroom@news.reuters.com) COPYRIGHT Copyright Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. The copying, republication or redistribution of Reuters News Content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters.