BRUSSELS, May 4, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Beijing is vigilantly watching Russia-Ukraine events to inform and update its geostrategic and military assumptions. But widespread concerns that China has similar designs for Taiwan are ill-founded. Moreover, the way the Ukraine situation is unfolding makes a Chinese assault less likely, not more.
Those insights and more are from Taiwan - Ukraine: A Pragmatic Assessment, a new analysis of the Sino-Western geopolitical landscape by The Conference Board.
China's military unreadiness, western resolve to support Taiwan, and the huge economic costs that sanctions would impose are three reasons why a Ukraine-like invasion of Taiwan is not in the cards. However, ever since the start of this war in late February, businesses must be ready for 'grey swans' and prepare for all eventualities.
"What we have learned from Ukraine is that we cannot categorically rule out Chinese aggression, based on our assumptions of what is rational," said David Hoffman, Senior Vice President, Asia, at The Conference Board." Given the high dependency of multinationals on the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, companies and policymakers would be wise to plan for the worst and seek to reduce semiconductor supply chain concentrations on the island."
Without regard for the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, contingency planning for geopolitical instability is now a mission-critical risk management requirement for multinational businesses, especially with respect to China-related tensions.
Key insights from Taiwan - Ukraine: A Pragmatic Assessment:
- China's military has excellent defensive capabilities, but, even by its own assessment, lacks the combined-force capabilities for a complex, 'quick-win' offensive.
- A protracted battle, such as what we're seeing in Ukraine, would be devastating for China, both economically and geopolitically.
- Taiwan is, comparatively speaking, a very difficult military target due to the ocean crossing, fortified beach landings, and highly mountainous terrain.
- The war in Ukraine has galvanised the West's resolve to resist authoritarianism, and the region sees support for Taiwan at a highpoint. This spells bad timing for China.
- China is a vastly more trade-connected and globally dependent economy than Russia. Among the consequences: the measures that the West has put in place against Russia are far more significant deterrents for China than they've been for Russia.
- The combination of NATO solidarity inspired by the war in Ukraine, expanding deterrence initiatives undertaken in Asia to bolster regional stability, and initiatives by Japan to shore up its self-defence capacities vis-à-vis China, are undoubtedly causing China's military planners to update their prior scenarios on the risks of a military move on Taiwan.
For more information on how the war in Ukraine may be impacting the East Asian geopolitical landscape, Read the report or contact The Conference Board for commentary.
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
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