- UAE to surpass global growth average with a strong annual growth Rate of 5.5 per cent
- The UAE records a higher trade diversity for both imports and exports than the global average
- India to remain the largest trading partner and Turkiye to be among the fastest-growing export destinations
- · Metals and minerals to be among the fastest-growing sectors at 6.3% annually
DUBAI, UAE, June 1, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard Chartered revealed today its latest research report titled "Future of Trade: New opportunities in high-growth corridors". The report forecasts that the global trade industry is expected to reach AED 120 trillion by 2030, with a projected growth rate of five per cent. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is poised to play a pivotal role in this global trade growth, with its exports projected to reach around AED 2 trillion by 2030, showcasing a robust annual growth rate of 5.5 per cent.
Additionally, the research highlights that trade corridors anchored in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to outpace the global trade growth rate by almost four percentage points, propelling the combined trade volume in these regions to an astounding AED 53 trillion, accounting for 44 per cent of global trade by 2030.
UAE: corridors to watch
India is set to remain the UAE's largest export destination, while exports to Turkiye, Vietnam and Singapore are among the fastest growing.
Corridor | Exports (AED 2030 annual growth) | Imports (AED 2030 annual growth) |
Turkiye | 55bn (10%) | 29.4bn (8.4%) |
India | 265 bn (9.0%) | 220.5bn (8.2%) |
Vietnam | 2.2 bn (7.2%) | 33bn (7.4%) |
Singapore | 73.5 bn (6.3%) | 33bn (6.4%) |
Mainland China | 99 bn (4.9%) | 202bn (4.8%) |
UAE: export sectors to watch
Driven by the government's unwavering commitment to facilitating cross-border trade, the UAE is undergoing substantial capacity expansions in critical industries. Notably, the country has achieved an impressive export diversity ratio of 0.54 per cent, surpassing the global average. (Export and import diversities are measured by an index; lower number indicates high diversity; global average for export diversity is 0.68 and for imports is 0.41). This is due to the country's efforts in diversifying exports into non-oil sectors through relaxing foreign ownership rules and offering attractive incentives.
Sector | Share of exports (2030) | CAGR 2021-2030 |
Metals and minerals | 73 % | 6.3 % |
Plastics and rubbers | 3 % | 5.4 % |
Global overview: high-growth corridors in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East
Corridor | CAGR (2021-2030) | Size (AED 2030) |
Intra - ASEAN | 8.7 % | 2.94tn |
South Asia - ASEAN | 8.6 % | 1.1tn |
South Asia - Africa | 8.2 % | 0.735tn |
South Asia - Middle East | 7.0 % | 0.734tn |
East Asia - ASEAN | 6.3 % | 7.7tn |
Intra - East Asia | 3.4 % | 8tn |
Rola Abu Manneh, Chief Executive officer, Standard Chartered UAE, said: "The UAE's success in diversifying its exports along with the development of new trade corridors positions the country favourably for sustained growth and reinforces its economic resilience. This achievement is a direct result of the government's dedicated efforts to facilitating cross-border trade."
She concluded: "These trade projections further cement the UAE's position as the regional trade hub. The UAE continues to advance trade integration, and spearheads diversification efforts with policies supporting innovation and sustainability. We maintain a positive outlook on the UAE's ability to capitalise on these opportunities and sustain its upward trajectory in global trade arena."
About the Future of Trade 2030
This report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC Singapore, provides a view on global trade over the next decade and identifies high growth corridors in Asia, Africa and the Middle East as well as 13 key markets that will define the way ahead. The study is based on an analysis of qualitative and quantitative information from various sources, including historical trade data and trade projections until 2030. All trade figures used in this report are for trade of goods only and do not include trade in services.
A survey of 105 C-level and senior leaders from corporations globally was conducted to understand the key drivers of trade growth in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, how
recent disruptions have impacted their businesses, the initiatives they are implementing to overcome these disruptions, and digital supply chain finance solutions could enable greater trade and increase resilience in the coming years.
Find out more here.
Standard Chartered
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