"We need to collectively decide on system change"
HEEMSTEDE, Netherlands, Nov. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- On the eve of COP28, a programmer and a biologist from the Netherlands published a scientific essay in which they argue that independent experts should design a procedure to collectively decide on system change. This procedure would be an alternative to the Conferences of the Parties (COPs) on climate change and other issues.
The authors call on individuals and organisations to form a global team that will set in motion this design and the ensuing decision-making on system change. They believe there is a need for a new decision-making procedure because parties can essentially veto any proposal during the COPs, thus undermining agreements. Moreover, issues such as climate change and biodiversity loss are related, so they require a "systems" approach, not one COP for each issue.
A plan for a plan for the planet
In their essay, the researchers propose that experts in collective decision-making design the procedure to decide on system change and that others safeguard the design process in order to, for example, ensure that the experts are independent. "These experts would not decide on system change," co-author Arnold Bomans explains, "but they would create a plan by which others can decide on plans for system change." The decision-making procedure would have to aggregate a diversity of interests without the intercession of vetoing nation states.
The path to decision change
There is vast untapped expertise in the field of collective decision-making, including techniques for deliberation and mechanisms that remove politics and strategy. The global team should convene experts in such fields and allow them to design a decision-making procedure. Also, the team should bring together other people to guarantee that these experts are independent, that the decision-making procedure is evaluated, and that its design is presented consistently. Furthermore, the team should collect proposals for system changes, such as for a new economy. Finally, it should initiate the decision-making on system change or, as the authors like to call it, accomplish "decision change".
Flawed decision-making
In the following weeks, tens of thousands of people from countries and organisations will meet in Dubai (UAE) for COP28. The parties in question have been routinely unable to meet their targets, in particular the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Climate scientists worldwide, including from the World Meteorological Organization, warn that the global temperature rise is likely to exceed the 1.5 degree limit of the Paris Agreement in the next few years. "Nations are often motivated by self-interest and short-term objectives," says biologist Dr Peter Roessingh, co-author of the essay, "but the decision-making during the COPs does not cater for true cooperation and agreement."
Systems approach to multiple crises
There are many globally significant challenges that are close to crisis point right now: not just climate change, but ecological collapse and the threat of pandemics or nuclear war. These issues demand objective decision-making rather than politically motivated negotiation. Specifically, they need a systems approach.
Change in collective decision-making
It is these types of developments that made Bomans and Roessingh decide to take action. In 2020, Bomans, who holds a master's in mathematical decision theory, quit his job as a programmer to devote his time and energy to extensive research on collective decision-making. The two researchers read hundreds of scientific articles on the topic and summarised their findings in the essay, which is currently under review by a renowned scientific journal.
How to get the world on board
One of the questions that remain is how a completely new system is going to get the momentum to really make a difference. "Opposition is to be expected, but maintaining current decision-making procedures will never lead to the drastic measures needed according to earth scientists and ecologists," says Roessingh, to which Bomans adds: "I'm positive that if we can manage to get these decision-making experts together, there is a real chance of them designing a revolutionary process that everyone can commit to. Let me quote Buckminster Fuller: 'You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.'"
About the authors
Arnold Bomans (61) holds a master's degree in mathematical decision theory from Delft University of Technology. Since 2020, he has been working towards averting the worst of the biophysical collapse. His work includes a report on citizens' assemblies, from which he concluded that decision change is needed. He is currently designing and programming a moneyless economy.
Peter Roessingh (69) is a chemical ecologist and evolutionary biologist at the Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics of the University of Amsterdam (UvA). In addition to bioinformatical work on the evolution of insect sensory systems, he is involved in environmental initiatives as a member of Scientists4Future NL.
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