AVAX - Record work-in-hand points to strong growth

In FY24 we expect a large proportion of AVAX's recently secured construction projects to commence and consequent substantial revenue to be recognised. We therefore forecast FY24 revenue and adjusted EBITDA increases of 112% and 76% y-o-y to €851m and €90m, respectively. As Greek infrastructure investment improves and AVAX executes on its backlog, it could secure an improved rating. It is currently trading on an FY24e P/E of 5.3x, a 60% discount to peers. With our valuation of AVAX's concessions portfolio at €433m, €138m above the recognised book value of €295m, and a record work-in-hand level exceeding €3.2bn, there appears to be significant potential for investors. Our fair value stands at €3.2/share, indicating 87% upside potential.

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