Edison Investment Research Limited
London, UK, 22 Februar 2024 Edison issues initiation on Cereno Scientific (CRNO B): Differentiated approach in CVD with potential Cereno Scientific is a clinical-stage biotech, developing treatments for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) using novel approaches. Its focus on disease-modifying therapies and a collaboration with Abbott set it apart from peers. Lead asset CS1, a delayed immediate release formulation of valproic acid, is an HDAC inhibitor, aiming to deliver disease-modifying results in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Preclinical candidates include CS014, for thrombosis prevention without increased risk of bleeding (seen with current antithrombotics), and CS585 for CVD (specific indication not yet determined). 2024 will be a period of inflection, with top-line readouts from the Phase II CS1 study and expected clinical entry of CS014. We initiate coverage with a valuation of SEK2.32bn (SEK9.9/share).1 Our valuation (using a risk-adjusted net present value model) is almost entirely driven by CS1 in PAH, to which we attribute a 25% probability of success, a 2029 launch and peak sales of c $2.1bn. While we include CS014 in our model, the very early stage of development leads to limited valuation uptick, although this may change with clinical progression. CS585 has been excluded from our valuation for now. Gross cash of SEK87.1m at end-FY23, an expected SEK77m from warrant conversion and a SEK45m committed loan should be sufficient to fund operations into Q225. We model a partnership agreement for CS1 in 2026. Click here to view the full report.
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1843247 22-Feb-2024
