Original-Research: Nabaltec AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Nabaltec AG
Company Name: Nabaltec AG
ISIN: DE000A0KPPR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 06.03.2024
Target price: 25.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
FY23 profitability better than expected / valuation too pessimistic
Topic: While profitability in Q4 (preliminary figures) came in significantly better than expected, sales fell slightly short of expectations. Although FY24 is seen to also be burdened by the challenging macro environment, valuation has more than factored it in, in our view.
Q4 sales came in at EUR 44.2m, down 14% yoy (eNuW EUR 52.2m). The shortfall to our estimates was driven by the particularly weak Speciality Alumina (S.A.) segment where sales declined 31% yoy due to customers' further inventory wind-downs, generally weak demand (46% of sales from refractory customers). Functional Fillers (F.F.) came in as expected at EUR 32.4m (-6% yoy). FY23 sales decreased by 8.6%; with F.F. down 4% yoy to EUR 142m and S.A. down 12% yoy to EUR 58m. Positively, boehmite sustained its recovery, yet from low levels. H2 volumes stood at 3.1kt, up ~64% vs H1, leading to FY volumes of c. 5kt (flat yoy, eNuW). Nabaltec is also gaining further momentum with its gap filler, APYRAL.
Q4 EBIT came in strong at EUR 5.2m, down only 6% yoy (eNuW: EUR 3m), a margin of 11.7%. This was the result of a positive mix effect, i.e. decent development of higher margin products like boehmite, APYRAL and ATH from Nashtec vs. a strong decline at S.A. FY23 EBIT came in at EUR 18.3m, a 9.1% margin.
Cautious FY24 guidance. Management expects to grow FY24 sales slightly (eNuW new: 3.9%) with an EBIT margin of 7-9% (eNuW new: 8.6%). Growth is expected to be carried by a slight increase of boehmite volumes (+1kt yoy), further growing gap filler demand and improving utilization rates at its US plants, while the remainder of F.F. and S.A. should remain rather flat yoy.
The core business (ATH and S.A.) should remain solid going forward, yet with a certain degree of cyclicality as currently visible. Speciality products such as boehmite and APYRAL still have the potential to significantly drive earnings growth going forward. Yet, as a result of uncertainties regarding the build-up of significant European/US battery production volumes, timing and degree of growth remains difficult to assess. Mind you, boehmite is used to coat the separator film and the electrode in order to significantly improve safety/heat resistance of NMC, NMx and LFP batteries.
Unjustified valuation. Nabaltec is trading on 7.5x EV/EBIT FY24e (10y avg. at 11.9x) and a 30% discount to its book value while having a rock-solid balance sheet (EUR 94m cash, EUR 4m net cash), good margins and offering a 16% FCF yield. Remains a BUY with a new EUR 25 PT (old: EUR 31) based on FCFY 24e.
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http://www.more-ir.de/d/29077.pdf
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Kontakt für Rückfragen
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Web: www.nuways-ag.com
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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