Original-Research: LION E-Mobility - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to LION E-Mobility
Company Name: LION E-Mobility
ISIN: CH0560888270
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 25.03.2024
Target price: EUR 8.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
On the road for accelerating growth; chg. est.
Topic: LION E-Mobility published its FY23 prelims and FY24 guidance. While the latter came in below our estimates, it offers plenty of room for upside. Valuation remains highly attractive.
FY23 revenues increased by 4% yoy to EUR 56.1m, whereas EUR 26.3m came from Q4 alone. FY EBITDA stood at EUR -0.7m; Q4 EUR -0.8m. Worth highlighting, the operating cash flow improved strongly from EUR -6.8m in FY22 to EUR 2.1m in FY23 (EUR 1m in Q4), which should have largely been carried by a normalization of inventory levels. Mind you, the company build up a stockpile of completed battery packs at the end of FY22 to service customers throughout the transition period.
FY24 guidance points to 7-16% yoy growth (EUR 60-65m). While the growth targets came in well below our old estimates of EUR 86m, management stretched the conservative approach during the earnings call. With the company significantly ramping up its sales efforts (increased headcount and trade show appearances, from 4 to 30), strong growth ambitions from important customers such as Karsan (electric buses and mini-buses) and plenty of spare capacity at its production site in Hildburghausen. Further, the company is currently active in more than 20 design-in projects, of which some should turn into firm orders. EBITDA is seen to come in at EUR 0.5-1m (eNuW old: EUR 1.1m)
FY25e with accelerated growth (eNuW: 34% to EUR 90m) on the back of the partnership with SVOLT, which will allow LION to produce higher energy density (20% more vs currently used cells) NMC and LFP battery packs from H2 2024 onwards. The latter should turn into a notable tailwind as it allows LION to fully break into the thriving energy storage market, which prefers LFP over NMC cells. As a result, the share of storage sales should exceed 50% during the next few years (FY23: 41%).
Immersion cooling progress. As highlighted during the earnings call, the company is progressing well with the development of its immersion cooled battery packs. Until the end of the year, LION should receive additional feedback (so far 'promising') from the premium OEMs currently testing the pack on the road. Note: We have currently reflected no value for LION's immersion cooling technology in our valuation.
Reiterate BUY with a new EUR 8 PT (old: EUR 10.50) based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29233.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research. NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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