Older and younger generations diverge significantly in their views of transatlantic ties
BOSTON, Sept. 10, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The Association of Marshall Scholars is committed to supporting and monitoring the strength of the U.S.-U.K. relationship. As part of this work, the Association commissions an annual national poll to gauge U.S. perceptions of the U.S.-U.K. "special relationship" compared with other international alliances and opportunities. According to the 2024 survey conducted by Emerson College Polling on behalf of the Association of Marshall Scholars, Americans are increasingly divided about the primacy of the U.S.-U.K. alliance. While respondents over the age of 30 perceive the United Kingdom as the United States' most important ally and strategic partner, younger respondents do not hold the same view.
The poll findings, resulting from a survey of 1,100 U.S. residents between September 2 to 4, 2024, highlight a significant generational divide in how Americans perceive international alliances.
According to the poll, 36% of U.S. residents under the age of 30 rank China, over the United Kingdom, as America's most valuable strategic partner. This compares with only 4% of respondents over the age of 70 who felt similarly. Just over one quarter (27%) of the youngest demographic of respondents, saw the U.K. as America's most valuable ally, as compared with more than half (57%) of those respondents 70 years old or older who felt this way.
The survey finds a clear trend over several years: in 2019, 28% of young Americans viewed China as a key partner, and after a brief decline in 2020 and 2021, that number rebounded to 30% in 2023, climbing further to 36% in 2024, signaling a steady rise in favorability toward China among younger generations.
A majority of respondents still believe that the U.S. relationship with the U.K. is "very important" today - although 44% of Americans under 30 held this view as compared with 74% of Americans over 70 years old who felt this way.
"Younger Americans do not appear to value the U.S.-U.K. strategic alliance in the way that older generations do," said Dr. Nell Breyer, Executive Director of the Association of Marshall Scholars. "The Association of Marshall Scholars annual survey results on the health of the 'special relationship' appear to reflect part of a wider emerging trend, suggesting a change in young people's attitudes towards traditional U.S. partners and allies "
Transatlantic Leadership Seen As Critical for Global Security Despite Shifting Youth Perceptions
In both 2023 and 2024, more than 70% of survey respondents indicated that NATO member countries' support for Ukraine, including from the U.S. and the U.K., is somewhat important or very important for global security and democracy.
Similarly, over 70% of respondents across both years felt that U.S. and U.K. support for Israel is somewhat important or very important, though a generational divide is evident-60% of those under 30 share this view, compared to 86% of respondents over 70.
2024 Election: Divided Views on US-UK Relations Under Harris or Trump
The survey underscored the U.S. electorate's divisions within domestic politics, with voters evenly split for Kamala Harris (44%) and for Donald Trump (44%), with 12% of respondents reporting that they remain undecided.
When respondents were asked which U.S. presidential candidate would be better for the U.S.-U.K. relationship, Republican and Democratic responses fell along partisan lines. However, Independent voters were less evenly split, with 42% of Independents describing Harris as better for the U.S.-U.K. relationship, as compared to 36% of these voters who felt Trump would be better for the alliance.
Strengthening U.S.-U.K. Ties for Younger Generations
The new survey shows that the broad American public still perceives the U.K. as a primary U.S. ally, but that this transatlantic orientation is shifting for younger generations.
The findings underscore the growing importance of sustained cross-cultural engagement and educational exchange programs, such as the Marshall Scholarship, which can serve as a bridge between the United States and the United Kingdom. These study-abroad programs can foster personal ties and deepen understanding of the shared values that underpin the U.S.-U.K. alliance, helping to maintain the strength of this historic partnership in the face of shifting generational attitudes and emerging global challenges.
Methodology
All respondents interviewed in this study were part of a fully representative sample consisting of n=1,100 residents. The sample of registered voters is n=1,027 with a credibility interval of +/-3%. Data was weighted by US general population parameters, and voter registration data. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 2.9% in 19 of 20 cases. The survey was administered by contacting residents via an online panel. Data was collected between September 2-4, 2024.
Full survey data and cross-tabulation available at: marshallscholars.org/news-and-updates/2024-poll
About the Association of Marshall Scholars
The Association of Marshall Scholars works to strengthen US-UK ties and the Marshall Scholarship. The transatlantic alliance has historically been a lynchpin for liberal democracy, prosperity, and global peace. A valuable thread of this relationship has been the Marshall Scholarship, an educational program strengthening international exchange and advancement in nearly every field of human endeavor.
About Emerson College Polling
Emerson College Polling has been ranked as one of the most accurate collegiate pollsters by FiveThirtyEight and Bloomberg News. Emerson College Polling is a Charter Member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.
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