Yesterday, FWAG finished off the main travel season with solid August '24 traffic results, slightly better than expected. In detail:
In August, group passenger numbers rose by 9% yoy to 4.4m passengers (eNuW: 4.3m) driven by the busy travel season, particularly in Malta (+12% yoy) and Kosice (+23% yoy). The main contributor, Vienna (75% of group passengers), grew its passengers numbers by 7% yoy to 3.3m, also showing a solid improvement. - see p. 2 for details
Historic record in main travel season: While July '24 marked the strongest month in Vienna airport's history, August '24 has even beaten that young record. This concludes the most successful summer travel season with a combined passenger volume of 6.7m passengers (July & August) at Vienna airport in the two most busy months of the year.
YTD growth in line with peer group: FWAG's YTD passenger growth (10% yoy) compares well to its European peers (see p. 2). While Munich is showing catch up effects with YTD growth rates of 13.6% yoy it still lags behind its pre-crisis levels by 15%, whereas FWAG is 5% above 2019 levels. Athens on the other side seems to benefit from seasonally strong summer but also from an overall tourism boom over the last years, explaining both the strong YTD growth rate of 14% and its exceedance of 2019 levels by 23%.
Seasonality to slow growth momentum: Due to the upcoming begin of the winter season (Oct-Apr), we expect a sequential decline in both absolute passenger numbers and yoy growth rates for the next months (see p. 2). This should nonetheless lead to FY'24e group passengers of 41m (eNuW), implying a solid growth of 8% yoy.
Following Q2 results, FWAG's share price has moved even closer towards our fair value PT of € 59.00 (unchanged, based on DCF), further limiting the likelihood of share price hikes in the near-term, in our view.
Therefore, the stock remains a HOLD, as we regard current sound operating results well reflected by the current valuation.
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
