Topic: During our recent roundtable, Rubean provided an update on current operations as well as a promising outlook until year end and beyond. Here are our key takeaways:
Product roll-out in full swing. With 50k terminals live in Germany and Spain, Rubean is now the market leader in both countries. In those countries, but also abroad, Rubean is serving 1) logistic companies (CoD - Cash on Delivery) such as Correos, GLS, dpd and SEUR, 2) retailer such as REWE, Deichmann and snabble, 3) hospitality companies such as CTS eventim, Gewinnblick, Ordermann and Waldbühne Berlin as well as 4) banks and acquirers such as Sparkasse, BBVA, Global Payments and emerchantpay. As recent customer wins just start to materialize, we expect a strong sales ramp-up going forward, even without new customer wins that we consider as very likely.
Strong Pipeline of more well-known potential customers. As Rubean is currently in negotiations with potential customers in dozens of countries not only in Europe, but also in LATAM & US, we expect further major customer wins within the next weeks and months, additionally carrying sales growth beyond 2024.
Huge TAM and SOM. While the European Mobile POS Market is growing at 15% CAGR 2024-28e (according to Statista), Rubean's TAM in Europe should be at around € 1.4bn ARR, while the SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market; within 3 years) is seen at € 144m in ARR (according to management).
Based on the current roll-out, the strong pipeline as well as the enormous market potential in the mPOS space, management is confident to grow sales in FY24 to € 2.2-2.5m (+135% yoy at midpoint), in line with our estimates of € 2.5m. As Rubean is seen at the forefront of the rapidly growing market for mobile payment acceptance systems we further expect Rubean to achieve profitability within FY25 and consider managements mid-term vision of € 10+m in sales and 40+% EBIT-margin by FY27 as reasonable.
In order to finance further growth initiatives, especially in LATAM & US, Rubean is currently looking for strategic investors that are willing to buy 1.22m new shares at a price of € 6.00 per share, which we would consider fair.
BUY with a unchanged PT of € 8.50, based on our DCF.
ISIN: DE0005120802
