Helios Underwriting - Strategic shift from growth to consolidation

Helios Underwriting (Helios) delivered EPS growth of 35% to 7.7p in H124 and reported a net asset value (NAV) of 191p/share. While its combined ratio of 91.6% deteriorated from 88% in H123 and 85% in FY23 due to seasonal impacts on the 2024 year of account (YOA) and stricter reserving for its 2022 YOA, we forecast an improvement to 88.8% for FY24. Helios experienced cost pressures during the period as a result of abandoning its 'follow-only' syndicate initiative and the departure of its CEO. We expect a meaningful reduction in costs in FY25, including a saving in stop-loss reinsurance costs as the company is expected to reduce cover in light of very healthy syndicate solvency levels. We have significantly reduced our forecast underwriting capacity growth for the company to reflect its new strategy, aimed at consolidating its book and focusing on shareholder distribution. We have lifted our FY24 EPS forecast by 10% on higher underwriting and group income expectations and by 4% in FY25 on lower costs, but cut our longer-term EPS forecasts on lower growth expectations. This leaves our valuation unchanged at 280p/share.

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