Topic: Nynomic cut its FY24 guidance due to delayed order intakes and project postponements but should return to strong growth from FY25 onwards as reflected by the confirmed mid-term guidance.
Recent years underpin the importance of the second half of years for Nynomic (FY23: 60% of sales, 70% of EBIT). Due to revenue shifts into FY25 as a result of delayed order intakes and project postponements from customers, management cut its FY24 guidance to€ 100-110m sales (old: slight yoy increase vs € 118m; eCons: € 120m) and a 7-9% EBIT margin (old: yoy margin increase vs 13.1%; eCons: 13.7%).
For the first time in several years, all three segments are experiencing headwinds. For instance, within Green Tech, end customers are reluctant to purchasing high-end vehicles (e.g. combine harvesters) and systems. Within Clean Tech, customers in traditional silicon-based sectors are experiencing delays in new projects, as well as upgrades to existing systems, due to changes in the AI and memory markets.
Importantly, the absence of order cancellations, strong underlying demand, and the continued development of customer projects provide reassurance that these issues are temporary. In fact, we expect € 11m of orders, intially planned for H2 this year to be recognized in H1 2025.
Looking beyond FY24, Nynomic should return to strong growth. Until FY26e, we expect sales to increase to € 141m with an EBIT margin of above 15%, carried by (1) the revenue recognition of delayed orders to the tune of € 11m (eNuW), (2) recent product launches ramping up/gaining traction (e.g. TactiScan, LabScanner Plus and FETTE's tablet press), (3) generally revitalizing end markets such as semiconductors and medical and pharmaceutical applications and (4) new product launches.
Unchanged mid-term guidance. Management continues to regard the mid-term-guidance (3-5 year time horizon), which was issed last year as intact, expecting sales to reach € 200m with a 16-19% EBIT margin, driven by a combination of strong organic growth and add-on acquisitions.
Conclusion: While short-term headwinds necessitate a modest downgrade to the 2024 forecast, the core fundamentals and growth trajectory for Nynomic remains compelling. Investors should focus on the expected rebound in 2025, carried by the recognition of delayed orders and the strong pipeline of new projects. We confirm our BUY rating with a new € 44 PT (old: € 50) based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A0MSN11
