Last week, we hosted FWAG European MidCap Conference in Paris with some insightful meetings. As neither an airport nor the city of Vienna needs much explanation, discussions quickly turned towards current and future CAPEX projects, the shareholder structure and FWAG's capital allocation. Here are our key takeaways:
Decision for 3rd runway until 2026e: Next to the current CAPEX project (Terminal 3 South Expansion, eNuW: € 425m total CAPEX until FY'27e), the decision to plan a third runway by 2033 is still pending. However, a final decision is to be made by FWAG until FY'26e and should resolve the current uncertainty. While the CAPEX volume for the third runway is to early to tell and undisclosed, it should nevertheless should go into the billions (eNuW: € 1.5-3bn). Until then, FWAG should resume its current dividend policy and stores its excess cash in time deposits.
Positive decision: In the event of a positive decision, we expect the building process to start shortly after which will kick off a large CAPEX cycle with muted FCFs. Although FWAG operates debt free with a € 349m cash pile (per H1'24 and eNuW: € 600-750m by Y/E'27e), additional financing to stem the project would become necessary, in our view. Here, either a capital increase via the stock exchange or a debt intake to of up to 2-3x EBITDA (current peer group's average) or a combination are thinkable.
Negative decision: in this case, the third runway would not be built for at least one or two generations, meaning that FWAG could improve its capital structure and put the excess cash to good use in the form of special dividends, share buybacks and M&A.
In both ways, the final decision should serve as a pivotal moment, defining the future of the airport operator, in our view. Towards which decision management will eventually go for remains unforeseeable for us.
In another topic, the discussions turned towards the current shareholder structure, with only 6% of free float and IFM holding 44%. Here, decisions of IFM to potentially increase, reduce or maintain its current shareholding are all viable options, but also unforeseeable from the outside.
For the time being, FWAG remains a HOLD with an unchanged PTof € 59.00, based on DCF.
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
