Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
30.10.2024 / 09:02 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Hold
from: 30.10.2024
Target price: EUR 61.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q3 preview: strong growth and margins at cruising altitude
FWAG releases Q3 results on 14th November, which should mark not only new top- and bottom-line records, but should also show an increase in net liquidty thanks to solid cash generation despite the current CAPEX cycle.
Sales should come in strong at EUR 306m, +13% yoy, eCons: EUR 305m (9M: EUR 794m, +14% yoy) thanks to vivid passenger volumes (Q3: +8% yoy; 9M: +9% yoy) coupled with higher airport charges (+9.7% yoy as of Jan. 2024). Mind you, Q3 is seasonally the most important quarter, accounting for c. 30% of FY revenues and c. 38% of FY EBITDA (both eNuW).
EBITDA should increase by 3% yoy to EUR 160m (eCons: EUR 165m; 9M: EUR 365m) but with an EBITDA margin of 52% below last year (-5pp yoy) due to higher expected OPEX of EUR 146m (+23% yoy). The OPEX rise should mainly be driven by an increase in personell expenses (eNuW: EUR 101m, +28% yoy), as an effect of a higher headcount (eNuW: +8% yoy) and the rise in collective bargaining agreements (+ 7% wage increase) and a higher rate of overtime hours during the busy season. On an absolute level however, EBITDA should thus mark a new record and it shows that the company currently operates well within a healthy margin corridor of 40-45% on a FY basis (eNuW: 41% for FY'24e).
FCF is seen at EUR 42m (eNuW; 9Me: EUR 140m) composed of a stellar CFO of EUR 117m (eNuW; 9Me: EUR 295m) and CAPEX of around EUR 75m (+135% yoy; 9Me: EUR 155m; eNuW) driven by the current southern expansion of Terminal 3. Consequently, we expect net liquidity to rise further and amount to EUR 391m by 9M'24e. To remind you, the cash build-up should continue until a final decision on the 3rd runway has been made (see update from 9th October 2024), which we regard as a pivotal decision for FWAG's future.
Moreover, FWAG publishes Oct'24 traffic results on 14thNovember, where we expect a continuation of strong demand meeting rising supply. Thus, we expect 3.8m passengers on group level (+6% yoy; 105% of 2019 levels).
Albeit the company continues to operate well, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation, as we regard the stock as fairly valued, which only shows a mere 16% upside to our PT of EUR 61.00 (based on DCF).
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31149.pdf For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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2018633 30.10.2024 CET/CEST
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