Topic: Rubean published an interim statement with details on sales and personnel expenses that both developed as expected. In detail:
- 9M sales grew by 117% yoy to € 1.3m, in line with our estimates of € 1.4m, mainly driven by the further roll-out of SoftPOS that continues to materialize. Especially the cooperation with Europeans largest shoe reseller Deichmann contributed strongly to the Q3 results.
- EBITDA should have improved to € -1.9m (eNuW) thanks to increased sales strict, cost discipline, i.e. visible in reduced 9M personnel expenses of € 2.1m (-6% yoy). Material expenses as well as other operating expenses should have remained stable yoy (eNuW).
Overall, Rubean is seen well on track: With >50k terminals live in Germany and Spain, Rubean is the market leader in both countries. In those countries, but also abroad, Rubean is now serving 1) logistic companies (CoD - Cash on Delivery) such as Correos, GLS, dpd and SEUR, 2) retailers such as REWE, Deichmann and snabble, 3) hospitality companies such as CTS eventim, Gewinnblick, Ordermann and Waldbühne Berlin as well as 4) banks and acquirers such as Sparkasse, BBVA, Global Payments and emerchantpay. As recent customer wins (i.e. Deichmann) just start to materialize, we expect a strong sales ramp-up going forward, even without new customer wins that we consider as very likely. Planned sales of c. € 1m in Q4 are in reach, in our view. With that Rubean would reach its sales guidance of € 2.2-2.5m (135% yoy at midpoint) in line with our estimates.
Strong Pipeline of more well-known potential customers. As Rubean is currently in negotiations with potential customers in dozens of countries not only in Europe, but also in LATAM & US, we expect further major customer wins within the next weeks and months, additionally carrying sales growth beyond 2024. In light of the rapidly growing market for mobile payment acceptance systems we further expect Rubean to achieve profitability within FY25 and consider management's mid-term vision of € 10+m in sales and 40+% EBIT-margin by FY27 as reasonable.
BUY with a unchanged PT of € 8.50, based on our DCF.
ISIN: DE0005120802
