Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
07.11.2024 / 09:11 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 07.11.2024
Target price: EUR 57.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q3: improved KPIs and share buyback announced; chg. est
Yesterday, ZEAL released final Q3 results, in line with preliminary sales and EBITDA figures, announced a EUR 25m share buyback offer and showed improved KPIs.
Share repurchase at a premium: From 18th - 29th Nov.'24, ZEAL offers to buy back c. 568k shares at EUR 44 per share, which implies a solid 10% premium on yesterday's closing price. Through that, EUR 25m (i.e. 3% yield on Tuesday's market cap) are being returned to shareholders, which comes on top of dividends (EUR 23.8m for FY'23; eNuW: EUR 26m for FY'24e), showing that management not only focuses on value creation but also on its distribution to shareholders.
Reduction of shares: as of today, ZEAL owns 3.2% in treasury shares, which will be subsequently be canceled. Following the share buy back (assuming 568k shares are tendered), another 2.5% of future treasury shares are to be cancelled. In sum, this should reduce the share count by 5.7% to 21.09m (from now: 22.4m) by Nov. 29th (end of acceptance period), positively affecting EPS and DPS.
Superb start of new product: Following the launch of 'Traumhausverlosung' (eng.: Dream House Raffle) in mid-Q3, 417k customers (334k cross-sold from Lotto24 & 83k new customers acquired via D2C) have spent some EUR 8.6m in billings on the first draw (ABPU: EUR 20), which ended on Nov. 4th. With a stellar billings margin of c. 43% (vs. 1517%
in lottery brokerage), the first draw should have generated some EUR 3.7m in sales (eNuW, thereof c. 50% in Q3, i.e. EUR 1.9m). Mind you, the sales figure is seen as net sales, meaning after costs for prizes (c. EUR 1.3m this draw), charities (EUR 1.7m, 20% of billings), lottery taxes (EUR 1m, 11% of billings) and VAT (EUR 0.43m; 5% of billings).
Further improvement an all fronts: In Q3, MAU grew by 10% yoy to 1.33m MAU, while the ARPU climbed by a staggering 30% following the price increases in the lottery brokerage business, which was visible in a strong billings margin of 16.8% (+ 4.1pp yoy). Moreover, the strong user intake of H1 was largely maintained at 215k new registrations in Q3 (thereof c. 40-50k from 'Traumhausverlosung', eNuW), despite the absence of peak jackpots. This should stem from ZEAL's marketing shift towards brand awareness and reduces jackpot dependencies. (see p.2 for details)
All in all, ZEAL clearly shows the positive effects of compounding and operating leverage. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 57.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31201.pdf For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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2024403 07.11.2024 CET/CEST
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