Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG - from NuWays AG
08.11.2024 / 09:06 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International AG
Company Name: Rosenbauer International AG ISIN: AT0000922554
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 08.11.2024
Target price: EUR 50.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Solid Q3 preview and positive cross read; chg. est.
Topic: Rosenbauer will release its Q3 report on November 15. We expect the positive development after a strong H1 to continue.
Revenues are seen increasing 13.6% yoy to EUR 271m (eNuW) driven by (1) largely restored supply chains, and (2) substantial price increases, which are successively reflected in sales. This should also lead to a 0.8ppts increase in EBIT margin up to a healthy 5.2% (eNuW) and an EBIT of EUR 14.1m (+35% yoy). We expect this positive trend to continue for Q4'24e and thus a further improvement in profitability for FY24e after the transition year FY23 (eNuW EBIT margin FY24e: 5.2%; FY23: 3.5%; FY22: -1.1%).
Price increases should be a major growth driver: vehicle sales increased 14.8% yoy in H1, which includes a yoy price increase of c. 6%. We expect to see a similar magnitude of price increases in Q3. Once Rosenbauer lifts its vehicle prices, it takes usually 6-12 months to be reflected in the order intake. Hence, the price increases in FY23 are now cooked into the order book and should have a positive impact well into FY25e. Remind you, the order book end of Q1'24 had a 20% higher average price per firetruck than in the previous year. Consequently, price increases should be a major contributor to sales growth in the coming quarters, even if we don't expect Rosenbauer to raise its prices in the near term.
Demand expected to remain strong: in addition to price increases, further growth should be supported by a strong demand that shows up in a solid order intake (H1'24: EUR 744m; +12% yoy) and is driven by structural trends such as increasing extreme weather events caused by climate change and the electrification of fire trucks. With a record high in order backlog of EUR 2.02bn, Rosenbauer is set for continuous growth in the coming quarters.
Positive cross read: Rosenbauer's largest competitor Pierce which belongs to the American conglomerate Oshkosh, released last week its Q3 numbers. Revenue within the "Fire apparatus" segment came in at $ 340m, a 13% increase yoy thanks to restored supply chains as well as price increases. Operating income in Vocational came in at $ 100m (+90% yoy) with a solid margin increase of 4.7ppts yoy due to improved price/cost dynamics. The positive development of Oshkosh Pierce gives us additional confidence for Rosenbauer's Q3 figures next week.
We reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 50.00 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31229.pdf For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.
Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2025455 08.11.2024 CET/CEST
°
