Topic: On Thursday, Nov. 14th, MLP will releas Q3 results, after previously having released an ad-hoc with Q3 EBIT to come in "significantly above previous year's Q3 due to a € 17m performance fee collection and consequently raising the FY'24e EBIT guidance (see update from Oct. 8th). Here's what we expect in detail:
Q3 total sales should arrive elevated at € 242m (+15% yoy) driven by a mix of (1) the aforementioned performance fees (€ 17m vs. 0.1m in Q3'23) and (2) a solid underlying development with sales ex performance fees to be up 7% yoy. For the latter, we expect the segments FERI (+41% yoy to € 75m, +9% yoy ex perf. fees), Banking (+14% yoy to € 54m), Finanzberatung (+7% yoy to € 95m) and from low levels also the RE segment Deutschland.Immobilien (+58% yoy to € 9m) to have contributed most to the growth.
Q3 EBIT should mainly profit from the performance fee contribution (eNuW: € 11m EBIT effect, c. 65% incremental margin) and thus grow by 133% yoy to € 18m. Adjusting for performance fees, underlying EBIT should arrive at € 7m, down only slightly (-8% yoy), as we expect a constant yoy net interest income of € 12.5m due to recent interest rate declines.
Based on our estimates (€ 67m EBIT per 9M), the FY'24e guidance of € 85-95m EBIT would only require a Q4 EBIT of € 18-28m (eNuW: € 28m), which compares well to previous periods of € 23m (Q4'22) and € 25m (Q4'23). Mind you, that both previous Q4s recorded no significant collection of performance fees and were burdened by goodwill impairments in the RE segment (€ 3m in Q4'22; € 4m in Q4'23). As current capital market performance bodes well for potential performance fees, while also the market recovery in RE poses less risk for another goodwill impairment in Q4, the chances are that the guidance could be outperformed. Despite us not assuming significant performance fees for Q4, we are positioned at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: € 95m).
Against this backdrop, we expect a solid Q3 release, also with record high AuMs of € 61bn, +9% yoy. Therefore, we confirm MLP in our NuWays Alpha List and reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 12.00, based on FCFY'24e.
ISIN: DE0006569908
