Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
15.11.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 15.11.2024
Target price: EUR 12.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q3 in line, guidance at top end or above achievable
Q3 sales increased by 19% yoy to EUR 245m (eNuW: EUR 242m; 9M: EUR 746m, +12% yoy), driven by a EUR 17m sales effect of performance fees (vs. Q3'23: EUR 0.1m) but also a solid underlying development (sales ex performance +11% yoy). The competence field Wealth drove sales by 36% yoy to EUR 140m (eNuW: EUR 128m; EUR 123m sales ex performance fees, up 19% yoy), whereas Life & Health sales also increased by 2% yoy to EUR 68m (eNuW: EUR 70m) followed by P&C sales of EUR 35m, up 2% yoy (eNuW: EUR 35m). Noteworthy, the RE business saw a two-faced development, where RE brokerage rose by 191% yoy and 17% qoq to EUR 10m (eNuW: EUR 8m) but RE development remained nonexistent at EUR 0m sales (eNuW: EUR 1m).
EBIT expanded sharply by 128% yoy to EUR 17.8m (eNuW: EUR 18.2m), benefiting from a EUR 11m performance fee EBIT contribution (eNuW; c. 65% incremental margin). On the other hand, underlying profitability (EBIT ex perf. fee effect) decreased by 13% yoy due to higher OPEX (+15% yoy).
Guidance confirmed: FY'24 guidance (EBIT: EUR 85-95m) confirmed: Based on a EUR 66m EBIT per 9M, the guidance implies a Q4 EBIT in the range of EUR 19-29m (eNuW: EUR 28m, not including significant performance fees). This also compares well to previous periods' EBIT of EUR 23m (Q4'22, no perf. fees) and EUR 25m (Q4'23, no perf. fees), which were both burdened by goodwill impairments in the RE segment (EUR 3m in Q4'22; EUR 4m in Q4'23). Consequently, we are positioned at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: EUR 95m). Moreover, should capital markets continue to perform well until Y/E'24e, performance fees could be in the cards and the guidance could be overachieved. For next year, MLP's midterm targets (EBIT EUR 100-110m; eNuW: EUR 102m) will become the FY'25e guidance and new mid-term targets are to be published with FY'24 results in March '25.
Dividend increase after 3 years likely: Based on MLP's targeted pay-out ratio of 50-70% (eNuW: 60%) and EPS estimate of EUR 0.64, the FY'24e dividend should amount to EUR 0.36 per share, implying a 20% yoy increase and a current yield of 6%. Mind you, that the dividend is tax free according to § 27 KStG.
All in all, MLP remains fully on track to achieve this and next year's targets this year and should continue to show improvements going forward thanks to its well diversified business model with a large share of recurring revenues. Therefore, we keep MLP in our NuWays' Alpha List and reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of EUR 12.00, based on FCFY'24e.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31331.pdf For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.
Archive at www.eqs-news.com
2030719 15.11.2024 CET/CEST
°
