Original-Research: Rosenbauer International AG - from NuWays AG
18.11.2024 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Rosenbauer International AG
Company Name: Rosenbauer International AG ISIN: AT0000922554
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 18.11.2024
Target price: EUR 50.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Strong Q3 results // guidance confirmed; chg. est.
Topic: Last Friday, Rosenbauer released strong Q3 results with top- and bottom-line above our estimates. Further, the company confirmed its FY24e guidance, which looks achievable for us.
Q3 sales increased 28.6% yoy to EUR 307m, clearly above our estimates (eNuW: EUR 271m) thanks to a higher volume of vehicle deliveries (9M: +22.6% yoy), significant price increases and restored supply chains. While sales in the Customer Service, Equipment and Preventive Fire Protection segments improved only modestly or even declined in Q3 (+7.5% yoy; +3.9% yoy; -33.9% yoy), Vehicle revenues increased by 38.4% yoy to EUR 234m.
Q3 EBIT came in at EUR 15.0m, a 43.6% yoy disproportional increase and above our estimates (eNuW: EUR 14.1m). EBIT margin improved 0.5ppts yoy to a solid 4.9% mainly due to operating leverage and price increases.
Order intake continued to be strong and came in at EUR 489m, 35.3% above last year, leading to a new record high order backlog of EUR 2.2bn. As a result of the strong demand and the challenging supply chain situation in recent years, the order backlog was already at an elevated level. Rosenbauer intends now to reduce the book-to-bill to a level of 1.0x (1.60x in Q3'24) to decrease lead times and with that the implied risk in the order book of increases on the cost side like in FY21 & FY22.
Capital increase: the capital increase (company news: 20 June) is still conditional to competition and merger control approval. Nevertheless, management expects the deal to close in 2024.
Guidance specified: Rosenbauer specified its FY24e outlook to sales above EUR 1.2bn (previously: around EUR 1.2bn) and an EBIT margin of 5%. EUR 1.2bn sales are well in reach, given that Rosenbauer achieved already 70% of its target and Q4, which is by far the strongest quarter, is not in the books yet.
In the past five years, Q4 was responsible for 31.6%-37.2% of FY sales. In consideration of the fact that Rosenbauer (1) has a strong order backlog, (2) price increases are successively reflected in sales and (3) supply chains improved over the course of the year, we estimate FY24e sales of EUR 1,25m with an EBIT margin of 5.0%.
We reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31341.pdf For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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2031657 18.11.2024 CET/CEST
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