WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Global trade is poised to hit a record $33 trillion in 2024, showcasing remarkable resilience despite persistent economic and geopolitical challenges, according to a new UN report.
However, concerns loom for 2025, where the risks include escalating trade wars, geopolitical tensions and shifting policies, clouding the outlook.
According to the UN trade and development body's Global Trade Update, the projected figure for this year marks a $1 trillion increase over 2023, driven by 3.3 per cent annual growth.
A significant contributor was trade in services, which surged by seven per cent, accounting for half of the total expansion and adding $500 billion to global trade value. Goods trade, while growing at about 2 per cent, has remained below its 2022 peak.
While 2024's trade performance reflected resilience, the outlook for next year is uncertain, primarily due to potential policy changes in the United States under the incoming Trump administration.
'The 2025 trade outlook is clouded by potential US policy shifts, including broader tariffs that could disrupt global value chains and impact key trading partners,' UNCTAD said.
Such measures risk triggering retaliation and ripple effects, affecting industries and economies along entire supply chains.
'Even the mere threat of tariffs creates unpredictability, weakening trade, investment and economic growth,' the UN body warned.
Countries most exposed to changes in US trade policy are likely those with large trade surpluses with the United States and higher tariff barriers. Based on 2023 figures for trade in goods, these include China (about $280 billion trade surplus), India ($45 billion), the European Union ($205 billion) and Viet Nam ($105 billion), according to UNCTAD.
Other nations with trade surpluses, including Canada ($70 billion), Japan ($70 billion), Mexico ($150 billion) and South Korea ($50 billion), may also face some risks, despite imposing relatively lower tariffs on US imports or having established trade agreements with the country.
Adding to the uncertainty is the trajectory of the US dollar and macroeconomic policy shifts, add to global trade concerns.
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