Topic: Yesterday, FWAG released November 2024 traffic figures in line with estimates. Furthermore, easyJet resumes operations in VIE after 4 years. In detail:
In November, the group passenger number exceeded Nov'23 by 10% yoy and counted 2.9m passengers (eNuW: 2.8m). On a YTD basis, group passengers are up 9% yoy, showcasing the resilient demand for air travel despite higher ticket prices. Looking at the group's airports, Vienna (VIE) grew passengers by 7%yoy to to 2.3m (77% group share; YTD: +7% yoy), followed by growth of 19% yoy in Malta (MLA; 21% group share; YTD: +15% yoy) and growth of 29% yoy in Kosice (KSC; 1.4% group share; YTD: +18% yoy). - see p. 2 for details
30m pax in VIE surpassed. On December 10th, Vienna airport recorded its 30 millionth passenger in 2024, an achievement that has not been reached since 2019. This bodes well for our Dec'24e estimate of 2.3m for VIE passengers and thus puts our FY'24e estimate of 31.6m VIE passengers well in reach. On group level, we thus expect 41.3m passengers for FY'24e, which would imply a 9% yoy growth and 5% above 2019 levels.
easyJet returning to VIE. The UK-based low-cost carrier easyJet resumes operations at VIE after it terminated operations in 2020 during the COVID pandemic. A daily connection between Milan and Vienna will start in March 2025 and should last at least for the summer flight plan 2025, but (1) should continue during winter and (2) should serve as a start to potentially increase connections at VIE, in our view.
2025 guidance soon: On Jan. 18th 2025, FWAG releases not only Dec'24 traffic results, but also a traffic and financial guidance for 2025e. We expect group passengers to grow only by 2% yoy against a tough comparable base and thus expect sales to grow slightly disproportionately by 4% yoy thanks to the statutory increase in airport charges (c. 40% of sales) by 4.6% as of Jan 1st 2025.
In sum, the outlook of higher ticket prices for longer (see update from Dec. 10th) should ultimately weigh on demand growth for air travel. Nevertheless, air travel remains in high demand as spending behaviour tends to turn more towards experiences (i.e. travelling) instead of materialism. Consequently, we see FWAG well positionend to continue with strong operations, but also see this adequately priced in. Reiterate HOLD with new PT of € 60.00 (old: € 61.00), based on DCF.
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
