After an eventful 2024, where BVB reached the UCL final but also performed below their capabilities in the Bundesliga, the team will kick off 2025 on Friday against reigning champions Bayer Leverkusen. An opportunity for us to analyze what lies ahead for the club.
Bundesliga. With 19 games to go, BVB is entering the year in 6th place in the Bundesliga standings. While the first half of the season could be described as a double-edged sword, as the team dominated at home while struggling away, the team is still only 2 points behind 4th place, the first rank enabling for UCL qualification. In our view, especially the away win at Wolfsburg right before the Christmas break should serve as an encouragement for the reminder of the season. Yet, the team needs to sustainably pick up their performance away from Dortmund while simultaneously maintaining the strong home game record, in order to finish Top-4 in the league, in our view. As outlined previously, qualifying for the UCL is crucial given that the UEL prize money amounts to only 23% of the UCL prize money.
While this could financially be offset by the participation in the FIFA CWC, it would also harm BVB's ability to get new players, as top-class players in most cases seek to play for a UCL side. Speaking of the CWC, FIFA still has not announced specifics on prize money distribution. However, DAZN recently signed a deal with FIFA to broadcast the entire tournament in a € 1bn deal according to WSJ. The British streaming service will be awarded exclusive rights for worldwide distribution. Hence, it is still to be seen, if the reported € 50m minimum prize money for all 32 participants will become reality. Mind you, we do not include the CWC in our estimates until final prize money details are disclosed.
UCL. As outlined in our previous update, BVB is well positioned to qualify directly for the round of 16 via a Top-8 position in the league phase. This would guarantee the club an additional € 13m in TV marketing sales.
Sponsoring. At the end of the season, the contracts with shirt sponsors Evonik and 1&1 expire, which is offering further upside in terms of sponsoring sales, in our view, given the continued positive development of the club in the past 5 years.
We hence reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 5.50 PT based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005493092
