Topic: Following the award of the domestic TV rights in December, where the DFL achieved a 2% increase compared to the previous cycle (click here for update), the Executive Committee of the DFL now unanimously adopted the mechanism for distributing the revenues from the 25/26-28/29 cycle. In detail:
Strengthened central marketing. € 50m of the total additional proceeds of € 80m will be used to finance growth projects that will benefit all clubs by strengthening the centrally marketed rights. Clubs will contribute to this in accordance with their respective share of the distribution key.
Fan and media relevance. Going forward, within the "interest" pillar, national TV ratings and the number of club members will be taken into account. This should ultimately benefit BVB, as the club is 2nd in both club members and TV ratings.
Solidarity. The annual solidarity payments to Bundesliga 2 clubs will increase from € 8.5m to € 10m. In addition, an amount of five million euros per season will be distributed to the Bundesliga clubs that do not play internationally, which will be financed from the DFL's international media revenue. This on the other hand will be slightly negative for BVB, as the club is likely going to play internationally in all seasons of the upcoming cycle.
Talent. The "young talent" pillar will be adjusted to give greater weighting to match appearances of young players trained in Germany. This should benefit BVB, as the club as renowned across Europe for its ability to develop talented, young players.
Overall, the changes to the distribution are only minor, which is why we continue to estimate an average increase in domestic media revenues for BVB of 2% going for the upcoming cycle.
UCL. Last Wednesday, BVB beat Shakhtar Donetsk in the last game of the league phase, which BVB finished in 10th position, meaning the club will play in the play-offs in February. Here, BVB will play against either Sporting Lisbon or Club Brugge (draw today at 12am). Both opponents should be seen as clear underdogs against Dortmund, which is why we continue to expect the club to reach the round of 16, where BVB would play against either Lille or Aston Villa. In our view, either of both teams should be beatable as well, thus providing a certain upside to our current estimate (round of 16). -continued-
New head coach. Following Wednesday's match, CSO Lars Ricken confirmed, that Niko Kovac will become new head coach starting on Sunday. Kovac is not a blank slate in the Bundesliga, having coached Eintracht Frankfurt, Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg in the past. During his stints at Franfkurt and Munich, he was able to win two national cups as well as the one championship. In our view, clearly display his potential as a coach during his time in Frankfurt, while his jobs in Croatia, Munich, Monaco and Wolfsburg ended in him being sacked based on lack of success. Yet, especially in his first season with Monaco he had a point average of 2.05 and qualified for the UCL, which also has to be seen as a success. Overall, while Kovac might not seem as a perfect fit at first glance, he had successful periods in the past and has proven his ability to win titles. That being said, he certainly has the tools to exploit the high potential of the squad, which he can already prove in February, when BVB will play a total of six games (4x Bundesliga, 2x UCL).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005493092
