NAGA reported preliminary FY24 figures that came in as a mixed back with stronger than expected EBITDA but lower topline. Further, the company provided a detailed guidance for FY25e and FY26e. In detail:
- Sales came in at € 62.3m (-20% yoy), below our estimates of € 67.5m. The decline is mainly coming from the closure of loss-making non-core subsegments. This is also reflected in lower than anticipated trading activity of only 7.6m closed trades (vs. 11.5m pro forma in FY23; eNuW: 11.0m). Positively, volume per closed trade increased to € 14.8k (vs. € 7.7k in FY23) and revenue per closed trade to € 8.20 (vs eNuW: € 4.50). Moreover, total customer deposits, which is a soft indicator for future sales, exceed $ 100m for the first time.
- EBITDA stand at € 8.5m (-3.5% yoy vs. eNuW: € 5.9m), thanks to higher than anticipated synergy effects from the merger and increasing operational and marketing efficiency: Personnel and other operating expenses declined by 22% and 14% yoy to € 10.8m and € 13.4m (eNuW), while marketing expenses are down by 11% to € 21.0m.
After the transition year 2024 that was mainly characterized by integration, automation and efficiency processes, NAGA looks set to restart its growth engine. First measures such as the cooperation with BVB and Mike Tyson were already taken in Q4'24 and should start to translate into additional growth in Q1'25. Further measures fuelled by ramping-up are marketing expenses (according to the guidance by >50% yoy in FY25 and another 18% yoy to € 39m in FY26) are expected to follow. As a result, management is expecting topline growth of 19% to € 74m in FY25 (vs. eNuW old: € 87.7m) and another 32% to € 97.8min FY26 (vs. eNuW old: € 102.9m). Thanks to further synergy, efficiency and scale effects, EBITDA should to increase to € 12.5m in FY25 (vs eNuW old: € 12.7m) and € 27.6m in FY26 (vs eNuW old: € 18.8m) implying margins of 17% and 28%.
As the topline guidance fell short of expectations, we consider it as a rather conservative with room for positive surprises, while the bottom line looks quite ambitious.
Reiterate BUY with a reduced PT of € 1.20 (old: € 1.40) based on DCF.
ISIN: DE000A161NR7
