Topic: BVB released H1/Q2 results, which came in softer than in the year before due to lower transfer income, yet being in line with our estimates. Moreover, Niko Kovac meanwhile finished his second game as head coach - so far with a mixed record. In detail:
Q2 sales decreased 11.1% yoy to € 137.2m (eNuW: € 140.5m). This was mainly driven by a decline in match operations sales of € 17.3m (-13.3% yoy; eNuW: € 17.9m) caused by a fewer amount of home games (8 vs 10 in prior year) as well as reduced TV marketing sales of € 59.0m (-17.4% yoy; eNuW: 60.7m). The latter was mainly driven by the longer league phase of the UCL meaning that income from international TV marketing is recognized at a later date during the year compared to the previous year.
On this basis and following reduced transfer income, Q2 EBITDA decreased to € 33.0m (eNuW: € 34.9m). Yet, given an H1 EBITDA of € 58.7m, BVB remains fully on track to achieve its FY24/25 guidance of € 110-120m EBITDA. While the departure of Donyell Malen to Aston Villa should affect H2 EBITDA positively, the head coach change should have the opposite effect. Mind you, that we still have not accounted for the CWC this summer, as FIFA is yet to disclose prize money details. Hence, there is still upside to our estimates.
Unlucky Bundesliga debut for Kovac. Last weekend, Niko Kovac coached his first match in the Bundesliga, which BVB lost 1-2 at home against Stuttgart, one of the team competitors in the race for a top-4 finish. Despite the defeat we regard the performance as solid, and the win for Stuttgart as rather lucky. That being said, BVB currently is in 11th place, 7 points behind 4th. In this regard, it appears challenging but still well possible to achieve the UCL qualification for the coming season, which is why we remain our estimates for the FY25/26e.
UCL.On the contrary to the Bundesliga, BVB yesterday won the first leg of the play-off round 3-0 at Sporting Lisbon, which hands the team a strong advantage for the second leg next Wednesday. Mind you, BVB will play either Lille or Aston Villa, should they advance to the round of 16. Both teams should be beatable for the team, which is thus leaving a certain upside to our estimates (round of 16 exit).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
ISIN: DE0005493092
