SINGAPORE, Feb. 13, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Valeura Energy Inc. (TSX:VLE, OTCQX:VLERF) ("Valeura" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the results of its third-party independent reserves and resources assessment as at year-end 2024.
Highlights
- Record high year-end reserves: 32 MMbbl proved (1P), 50 MMbbl proved plus probable (2P) and 60 MMbbl proved plus probable plus possible (3P) reserves;
- 2P reserves replacement ratio of 245% even after annual production increase of 12%;
- 2P reserves and end of field life ("EOFL") increased at every field;
- 2P reserves net present value before tax of US$934 million and US$752 million after tax(1);
- Considering year-end 2024 cash position of US$259 million, Company net asset value ("NAV") is US$1,012 million, equating C$13.6 per common share(2);
- Contingent resources(3) of 48 MMbbl, more than double the total at end 2023; and
- Decommissioning costs significantly reduced through engineering studies and increased EOFL to beyond 2030.
| (1) | Discounted at 10% (NPV10) |
| (2) | Proved plus probable (2P) NPV10after tax plus cash of US$259.4 million (no debt), using US$/C$ exchange rate of 1.435, and 106.65 million common shares outstanding, as at December 31, 2024 |
| (3) | Unrisked 2C (best estimate) contingent resources |
Dr. Sean Guest, President and CEO commented:
"I am pleased to announce the results of our end 2024 reserves and resources evaluation, which shows again that our aggressive work programme can increase the ultimate potential of our fields and add value to our Company. In our second full year of operations we have again added more than double the reserves we produced, achieving a 2P reserves replacement ratio of 245%. This is a significant feat, considering we also increased production by 12% relative to 2023.
We also added to the ultimate potential of our portfolio, with all Thailand fields now having an economic field life lasting beyond 2030. Since taking over these assets, we have added at least four additional years of production life to each field. This means more years of future cash flow and is therefore a prime example of one key element of our strategy in action - driving further organic growth.
The net asset value of our business is now over US$1 billion - a record high, equating to more than C$13.6 per common share. This is based on our 2P after tax NPV10 increasing by 76% year-on-year, coupled with a new record year-end cash position.
In addition to discovering volumes through the drill bit and aggressively working to build our understanding of the intricate subsurface environment, various other financial and engineering studies have also added value. Our field abandonment costs have been reduced further through updated engineering studies which are benchmarked to actual abandonment operations in the Gulf of Thailand. The effect of this, combined with extended field life across the portfolio, is expected to reduce our Asset Retirement Obligation ("ARO") on our balance sheet by more than 50% since we first assumed operatorship of these assets.
We are relentless in our pursuit of value and we remain focussed on allocating capital efficiently. Moreover, we see exciting reserves-adding opportunities ahead through the potential Wassana field redevelopment, as well as through ongoing infill development and appraisal drilling across the portfolio, and the selective exploration targets we will pursue this year.
At the same time, inorganic growth remains a key part of our strategy, and we are actively evaluating several opportunities to assess fit with our strict screening criteria."
Valeura commissioned Netherland, Sewell & Associates, Inc. ("NSAI") to assess reserves and resources for all of its Thailand assets as of December 31, 2024. NSAI's evaluation is presented in a report dated February 13, 2025 (the "NSAI 2024 Report"). This follows previous evaluations conducted by the same firm for December 31, 2023 (the "NSAI 2023 Report") and December 31, 2022 (the "NSAI 2022 Report").
Oil and Gas Reserves by Field Based on Forecast Prices and Costs
| Gross (Before Royalties) Reserves, Working Interest Share (Mbbl) | ||||||
| Reserves by Field | Jasmine (Light/Medium) | Manora (Light/Medium) | Nong Yao (Light/Medium) | Wassana (Heavy) | Total | |
| Proved | Producing Developed | 5,268 | 1,370 | 6,541 | 2,894 | 16,073 |
| Non-Producing Developed | 703 | 433 | 153 | 242 | 1,531 | |
| Undeveloped | 4,713 | 705 | 3,742 | 5,490 | 14,650 | |
| Total Proved (1P) | 10,684 | 2,509 | 10,436 | 8,626 | 32,255 | |
| Total Probable (P2) | 6,108 | 848 | 6,500 | 4,297 | 17,753 | |
| Total Proved + Probable (2P) | 16,792 | 3,357 | 16,936 | 12,923 | 50,008 | |
| Total Possible (P3) | 3,647 | 718 | 4,297 | 1,027 | 9,689 | |
| Total Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) | 20,440 | 4,075 | 21,233 | 13,950 | 59,697 | |
Summary of Reserves Replacement, Value, and Field Life
As compared to the NSAI 2023 Report, the NSAI 2024 Report indicates an addition of 2.4 MMbbl of proved (1P) reserves and 12.1 MMbbl of proved plus probable (2P) reserves, after having produced 8.4 MMbbl of oil in 2024. This reflects a 1P reserves replacement ratio of 128% and a 2P reserves replacement ratio of 245%.
Based on the mid-point of the Company's 2025 production guidance of 23.0 - 25.5 Mbbl/d (24.25 Mbbl/d), on a 2P reserves basis as of December 31, 2024, the Company estimates its reserves life index ("RLI") to be approximately 5.6 years. Using the same 2025 production estimate and 2P reserves as of December 31, 2023 and December 31, 2022, the RLI was approximately 4.3, and 3.3 years, respectively.
The net present value of estimated future revenue after income taxes, based on a 10% discount rate has increased between the NSAI 2023 Report and the NSAI 2024 Report from US$193.9 million to US$358.6 million on a 1P basis, an increase of 85%. On a 2P basis, the net present value of estimated future revenue after income taxes, based on a 10% discount rate has increased from US$428.5 million to US$752.2 million, an increase of 76%.
The Company estimates that, based on the 2P net present value of estimated future revenue after income taxes in the NSAI 2024 Report, based on a 10% discount rate, plus the Company's 2024 year-end cash position of US$259.4 million, as disclosed on January 8, 2025, the Company has a 2P net asset value ("NAV") of US$1,011.6 million. Using the year-end count of common shares outstanding (being 106.65 million) and foreign exchange rates, Valeura's NAV equates to approximately C$13.6/share.
| 1P NPV10 | 2P NPV10 | 3P NPV10 | ||||
| Before Tax | After Tax | Before Tax | After Tax | Before Tax | After Tax | |
| NPV10(US$ million) | 360.7 | 358.6 | 933.9 | 752.2 | 1,339.1 | 990.2 |
| Cash at December 31, 2024 (US$ million)(1) | 259.4 | 259.4 | 259.4 | 259.4 | 259.4 | 259.4 |
| Net Asset Value (US$ million) | 620.1 | 618.0 | 1,193.3 | 1,011.6 | 1,598.5 | 1,249.6 |
| Common shares (million)(2) | 106.65 | 106.65 | 106.65 | 106.65 | 106.65 | 106.65 |
| Estimated NAV per basic share (C$ per share)(3) | 8.3 | 8.3 | 16.1 | 13.6 | 21.5 | 16.8 |
| (1) | Cash at December 31, 2024 of US$259.4 million, debt nil |
| (2) | Issued and outstanding common shares as of December 31, 2024 |
| (3) | US$/C$ exchange rate of 1.435 as at December 31, 2024 |
The NSAI 2024 Report indicates a further extension in the anticipated end of field life for all assets in Valeura's Thailand portfolio, as compared to the NSAI 2023 Report.
| Gross (Before Royalties) 2P Reserves, Working Interest Share | End of Field Life | 2P NPV10After Tax (US$ million) | |||||||||
| Fields | December 31, 2023 (MMbbl) | 2024 Production (MMbbl) | Additions (MMbbl) | December 31, 2024 (MMbbl) | Reserves Replacement Ratio (%) | NSAI 2023 Report | NSAI 2024 Report | December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2024 | ||
| Jasmine | 10.4 | (2.9 | ) | 9.2 | 16.8 | 324 | % | Dec 2028 | Aug 2031 | 81.8 | 163.9 |
| Manora | 2.2 | (0.9 | ) | 2.1 | 3.4 | 223 | % | Jul 2027 | Apr 2030 | 21.2 | 45.7 |
| Nong Yao | 12.4 | (3.1 | ) | 7.7 | 16.9 | 245 | % | Dec 2028 | Dec 2033 | 185.6 | 416.1 |
| Wassana | 12.9 | (1.4 | ) | 1.5 | 12.9 | 102 | % | Jun 2032 | Dec 2035 | 139.9 | 126.6 |
| Total | 37.9 | (8.4 | ) | 20.5 | 50.0 | 245 | % | 428.5 | 752.2 | ||
Valeura has demonstrated two consecutive years of growth in both aggregate 2P reserves and the associated after-tax 2P NPV10 value.
| Gross (Before Royalties) 2P Reserves, Working Interest Share (MMbbl) | 2P NPV10After Tax (US$ million) | |||||
| Fields | December 31, 2022 | December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2024 | December 31, 2022 | December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2024 |
| Jasmine | 10.0 | 10.4 | 16.8 | 37.1 | 81.8 | 163.9 |
| Manora | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 12.1 | 21.2 | 45.7 |
| Nong Yao | 11.2 | 12.4 | 16.9 | 145.5 | 185.6 | 416.1 |
| Wassana | 6.1 | 12.9 | 12.9 | 66.3 | 139.9 | 126.6 |
| Total | 29.1 | 37.9 | 50.0 | 261.0 | 428.5 | 752.2 |
The NSAI 2024 Report does not assume a new redevelopment concept for the Wassana field and therefore does not include potential upside volumes associated with the Company's contemplated redevelopment. Valeura is targeting readiness for a final investment decision ("FID") in early Q2 2025. Should the Company opt to proceed with the redevelopment, management anticipates a higher production profile, with longer field life than is currently reflected in the NSAI 2024 Report.
Net Present Values of Future Net Revenue Based on Forecast Prices and Costs
Net present values of future net revenue from oil reserves are based on cost estimates as of the date of the NSAI 2024 Report, and forecast Brent crude oil reference prices of US$75.58, US$78.51, US$79.89, US$81.82, and US$83.46 per bbl for the years ending December 31, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2029, respectively, with 2% escalation thereafter. NSAI assumes cost inflation of 2% per annum. Price realisation forecasts for each field are based on the Brent crude oil reference prices above, and adjusted for oil quality, and market differentials.
Based on Valeura's revised corporate structure, as modified by the reorganisation completed in November 2024, values estimated by NSAI assume a combined, single tax filing for all of the Company's Thai III fiscal concessions, covering the Wassana, Nong Yao, and Manora fields. The Jasmine field, being a Thai I fiscal concession, is outside this scope.
All estimated costs associated with the eventual decommissioning of the Company's fields are included as part of the calculation of future net revenue, specifically within the Proved Producing Developed category.
| Before Tax NPV10(US$ million) | ||||||||||
| Future Net Revenue by Field | Jasmine | Manora | Nong Yao | Wassana | Total | |||||
| Proved | Producing Developed | (124.7) | (27.6) | 146.2 | (160.7) | (166.8) | ||||
| Non-Producing Developed | 35.3 | 27.9 | 7.0 | 16.2 | 86.4 | |||||
| Undeveloped | 93.6 | 7.9 | 108.1 | 231.5 | 441.0 | |||||
| Total Proved (1P) | 4.2 | 8.2 | 261.3 | 87.0 | 360.7 | |||||
| Total Probable (P2) | 217.4 | 39.1 | 204.5 | 112.3 | 573.3 | |||||
| Total Proved + Probable (2P) | 221.5 | 47.3 | 465.8 | 199.3 | 933.9 | |||||
| Total Possible (P3) | 168.8 | 29.6 | 150.7 | 56.1 | 405.1 | |||||
| Total Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) | 390.3 | 76.9 | 616.5 | 255.4 | 1,339.1 | |||||
| After Tax NPV10(US$ million) | ||||||||||
| Future Net Revenue by Field | Jasmine | Manora | Nong Yao | Wassana | Total | |||||
| Proved | Producing Developed | (131.4) | (27.6) | 146.2 | (160.7) | (173.4) | ||||
| Non-Producing Developed | 33.9 | 27.9 | 7.0 | 16.2 | 85.1 | |||||
| Undeveloped | 99.6 | 7.9 | 108.1 | 231.5 | 447.0 | |||||
| Total Proved (1P) | 2.1 | 8.2 | 261.3 | 87.0 | 358.6 | |||||
| Total Probable (P2) | 161.8 | 37.4 | 154.8 | 39.6 | 393.6 | |||||
| Total Proved + Probable (2P) | 163.9 | 45.7 | 416.1 | 126.6 | 752.2 | |||||
| Total Possible (P3) | 96.7 | 20.4 | 93.3 | 27.6 | 238.0 | |||||
| Total Proved + Probable + Possible (3P) | 260.6 | 66.1 | 509.3 | 154.2 | 990.2 | |||||
Asset Retirement Obligations
During 2024, the Company conducted extensive engineering studies into the eventual decommissioning of its fields. These studies utilised costs benchmarked to current decommissioning activities underway elsewhere within the Gulf of Thailand. Valeura's work since acquiring the assets in early 2023 has resulted in a reduction of 32% in the anticipated cost to decommission the assets (US$ real basis).
In addition, the significant extensions to the economic life of all of the Company's fields means the timing for decommissioning expenditure has shifted further into the future. The combined effect is estimated to be a material reduction in the ARO liability to be shown on the Company's balance sheet. While the final ARO is still to be reviewed by the Company's auditor, management estimates that the ARO as at December 31, 2024 will have been reduced by approximately 35% from year-end 2023 and more than 50% relative to the Company's first estimate upon assuming operatorship of the Thai portfolio in Q1 2023.
Resources
NSAI assessed the Company's contingent resources of its Thailand assets for additional reservoir accumulations and reported estimates in the NSAI 2024 Report, the NSAI 2023 Report, and the NSAI 2022 Report. Contingent resources are heavy crude oil and light/medium crude oil, and are further divided into two subcategories, being Development Unclarified and Development Not Viable (see oil and gas advisories). Each subcategory is assigned a percentage risk, reflecting the estimated chance of development. Aggregate totals are provided below.
| Contingent Resources | NSAI 2022 Report Gross (Before Royalties) Working Interest Share | NSAI 2023 Report Gross (Before Royalties) Working Interest Share | NSAI 2024 Report Gross (Before Royalties) Working Interest Share | |||
| Unrisked (MMbbl) | Risked (MMbbl) | Unrisked (MMbbl) | Risked (MMbbl) | Unrisked (MMbbl) | Risked (MMbbl) | |
| Low Estimate (1C) | 10.4 | 1.8 | 15.2 | 6.5 | 29.4 | 9.2 |
| Best Estimate (2C) | 14.1 | 2.5 | 19.9 | 8.9 | 48.4 | 13.5 |
| High Estimate (3C) | 22.1 | 3.9 | 27.9 | 11.6 | 72.1 | 18.0 |
Comparing the NSAI 2023 Report to the NSAI 2024 Report, the Company has recorded an increase in the best estimate (2C) unrisked contingent resources of 143%.
The Company last completed an independent assessment of its prospective resources in Türkiye, effective December 31, 2018, which is available under Valeura's issuer profile on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.com. Valeura has no reserves or contingent resources associated with its properties in Türkiye.
Further Disclosure and Webcast
Valeura intends to disclose a summary of the NSAI 2024 Report to Thailand's upstream regulator later in February 2025. Thereafter, the Company will publish its estimates of reserves and resources in accordance with the requirements of National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities along with its annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2025, on approximately March 26, 2025.
Valeura's management team will host an investor and analyst webcast at 08:00 Calgary / 15:00 London / 22:00 Bangkok / 23:00 Singapore on Thursday, February 13, 2025 to discuss its reserves and contingent resources. Please register in advance via the link below.
Registration link: https://events.teams.microsoft.com/event/a527dbad-61ff-47b1-8330-a10c28cfd2ee@a196a1a0-4579-4a0c-b3a3-855f4db8f64b
As an alternative, an audio only feed of the event is available by phone using the Conference ID and dial-in numbers below.
Thailand: +66 2 026 9035"817613646#
Singapore: +65 6450 6302"817613646#
Canada: (833) 845-9589"817613646#
Tu¨rkiye: 0800 142 034779"817613646#
United States: (833) 846-5630"817613646#
United Kingdom: 0800 640 3933"817613646#
Phone conference ID: 817 613 646#
For further information, please contact:
Valeura Energy Inc. (General Corporate Enquiries)+65 6373 6940
Sean Guest, President and CEO
Yacine Ben-Meriem, CFO
Contact@valeuraenergy.com
Valeura Energy Inc. (Investor and Media Enquiries)+1 403 975 6752 / +44 7392 940495
Robin James Martin, Vice President, Communications and Investor Relations
IR@valeuraenergy.com
Contact details for the Company's advisors, covering research analysts and joint brokers, including Auctus Advisors LLP, Canaccord Genuity Ltd (UK), Cormark Securities Inc., Research Capital Corporation, and Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited, are listed on the Company's website at www.valeuraenergy.com/investor-information/analysts/.
About the Company
Valeura Energy Inc. is a Canadian public company engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Thailand and in Türkiye. The Company is pursuing a growth-oriented strategy and intends to re-invest into its producing asset portfolio and to deploy resources toward further organic and inorganic growth in Southeast Asia. Valeura aspires toward value accretive growth for stakeholders while adhering to high standards of environmental, social and governance responsibility.
Additional information relating to Valeura is also available on SEDAR+ at www.sedarplus.ca.
Oil and Gas Advisories
Reserves and contingent resources disclosed in this news release are based on an independent evaluation conducted by the incumbent independent petroleum engineering firm, NSAI with an effective date of December 31, 2024. The NSAI estimates of reserves and resources were prepared using guidelines outlined in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook and in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 - Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities. The reserves and contingent resources estimates disclosed in this news release are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves and contingent resources will be recovered.
This news release contains a number of oil and gas metrics, including "NAV", "reserves replacement ratio", "RLI", and "end of field life" which do not have standardised meanings or standard methods of calculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. Such metrics are commonly used in the oil and gas industry and have been included herein to provide readers with additional measures to evaluate the Company's performance; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the future performance of the Company and future performance may not compare to the performance in previous periods.
"NAV" is calculated by adding the estimated future net revenues based on a 10% discount rate to net cash, (which is comprised of cash less debt) as of December 31, 2024. NAV is expressed on a per share basis by dividing the total by basic common shares outstanding. NAV per share is not predictive and may not be reflective of current or future market prices for Valeura.
"Reserves replacement ratio" for 2024 is calculated by dividing the difference in reserves between the NSAI 2024 Report and the NSAI 2023 Report, plus actual 2024 production, by the assets' total production before royalties for the calendar year 2024.
"RLI" is calculated by dividing reserves by management's estimated total production before royalties for 2025.
"End of field life" is calculated by NSAI as the date at which the monthly net revenue generated by the field is equal to or less than the asset's operating cost.
Reserves
Reserves are estimated remaining quantities of commercially recoverable oil, natural gas, and related substances anticipated to be recoverable from known accumulations, as of a given date, based on the analysis of drilling, geological, geophysical, and engineering data, the use of established technology, and specified economic conditions, which are generally accepted as being reasonable. Reserves are further categorised according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on development and production status.
Proved reserves are those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.
Developed reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from existing wells and installed facilities or, if facilities have not been installed, that would involve a low expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) to put the reserves on production.
Developed producing reserves are those reserves that are expected to be recovered from completion intervals open at the time of the estimate. These reserves may be currently producing or, if shut in, they must have previously been on production, and the date of resumption of production must be known with reasonable certainty.
Developed non-producing reserves are those reserves that either have not been on production, or have previously been on production, but are shut in, and the date of resumption of production is unknown.
Undeveloped reserves are those reserves expected to be recovered from known accumulations where a significant expenditure (e.g., when compared to the cost of drilling a well) is required to render them capable of production. They must fully meet the requirements of the reserves classification (proved, probable, possible) to which they are assigned.
Probable reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved plus probable reserves.
Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves. There is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of the estimated proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
The estimated future net revenues disclosed in this news release do not necessarily represent the fair market value of the reserves associated therewith.
The estimates of reserves and future net revenue for individual properties may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation.
Contingent Resources
Contingent resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established technology or technology under development, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or more contingencies. Contingencies are conditions that must be satisfied for a portion of contingent resources to be classified as reserves that are: (a) specific to the project being evaluated; and (b) expected to be resolved within a reasonable timeframe.
Contingent resources are further categorised according to the level of certainty associated with the estimates and may be sub-classified based on a project maturity and/or characterised by their economic status. There are three classifications of contingent resources: low estimate, best estimate and high estimate. Best estimate is a classification of estimated resources described in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook as the best estimate of the quantity that will be actually recovered; it is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
The project maturity subclasses include development pending, development on hold, development unclarified and development not viable. The contingent resources disclosed in this news release are classified as either development unclarified or development not viable.
Development unclarified is defined as a contingent resource that requires further appraisal to clarify the potential for development and has been assigned a lower chance of development until commercial considerations can be clearly defined. Chance of development is the likelihood that an accumulation will be commercially developed.
Conversion of the development unclarified resources referred to in this news release is dependent upon (1) the expected timetable for development; (2) the economics of the project; (3) the marketability of the oil and gas production; (4) the availability of infrastructure and technology; (5) the political, regulatory, and environmental conditions; (6) the project maturity and definition; (7) the availability of capital; and, ultimately, (8) the decision of joint venture partners to undertake development.
The major positive factor relevant to the estimate of the contingent development unclarified resources referred to in this news release is the successful discovery of resources encountered in appraisal and development wells within the existing fields. The major negative factors relevant to the estimate of the contingent development unclarified resources referred to in this news release are: (1) the outstanding requirement for a definitive development plan; (2) current economic conditions do not support the resource development; (3) limited field economic life to develop the resources; and (4) the outstanding requirement for a final investment decision and commitment of all joint venture partners.
Development not viable is defined as a contingent resource where no further data acquisition or evaluation is currently planned and hence there is a low chance of development, there is usually less than a reasonable chance of economics of development being positive in the foreseeable future. The major negative factors relevant to the estimate of development not viable referred to in this news release are: (1) current economic conditions do not support the resource development; and (2) availability of technical knowledge and technology within the industry to economically support resource development.
If these contingencies are successfully addressed, some portion of these contingent resources may be reclassified as reserves.
Of the best estimate 2C contingent resources estimated in the NSAI 2024 Report, on a risked basis: 74% of the estimated volumes are light/medium crude oil, with the remainder being heavy oil; 77% are categorised as Development Unclarified, with the remainder being Development Not Viable. Development Unclarified 2C resources have been assigned an average chance of development for the four fields ranging from 30% to 50% depending on oil type, while 2C Development Not Viable resources have been assigned an average chance of development ranging from 16% to 17%.
| Resources Project Maturity Subclass | Light and Medium Crude Oil (Development Unclarified) | Chance of Development (%) | ||||
| Unrisked | Risked | |||||
| Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | |||
| Contingent Low Estimate (1C) Development Unclarified | 8,267 | 7,334 | 3,108 | 2,742 | 38 | % |
| Contingent Best Estimate (2C) Development Unclarified | 14,178 | 12,538 | 4,227 | 3,728 | 30 | % |
| Contingent High Estimate (3C) Development Unclarified | 21,072 | 18,644 | 5,289 | 4,673 | 25 | % |
| Resources Project Maturity Subclass | Heavy Crude Oil (Development Unclarified) | Chance of Development (%) | ||||
| Unrisked | Risked | |||||
| Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | |||
| Contingent Low Estimate (1C) Development Unclarified | 7,807 | 7,358 | 4,045 | 3,813 | 52 | % |
| Contingent Best Estimate (2C) Development Unclarified | 10,641 | 10,029 | 5,325 | 5,018 | 50 | % |
| Contingent High Estimate (3C) Development Unclarified | 14,524 | 13,689 | 6,560 | 6,182 | 45 | % |
| Resources Project Maturity Subclass | Light and Medium Crude Oil (Development Not Viable) | Chance of Development (%) | ||||
| Unrisked | Risked | |||||
| Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | |||
| Contingent Low Estimate (1C) Development Not Viable | 11,294 | 10,502 | 1,694 | 1,575 | 15 | % |
| Contingent Best Estimate (2C) Development Not Viable | 21,539 | 19,965 | 3,652 | 3,319 | 17 | % |
| Contingent High Estimate (3C) Development Not Viable | 33,503 | 30,964 | 5,363 | 4,802 | 16 | % |
| Resources Project Maturity Subclass | Heavy Crude Oil (Development Not Viable) | Chance of Development (%) | ||||
| Unrisked | Risked | |||||
| Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | Gross (Mbbl) | Net (Mbbl) | |||
| Contingent Low Estimate (1C) Development Not Viable | 2,069 | 1,950 | 310 | 293 | 15 | % |
| Contingent Best Estimate (2C) Development Not Viable | 2,091 | 1,971 | 341 | 321 | 16 | % |
| Contingent High Estimate (3C) Development Not Viable | 3,003 | 2,830 | 815 | 768 | 27 | % |
The NSAI estimates have been risked, using the chance of development, to account for the possibility that the contingencies are not successfully addressed. Due to the early stage of development for the development unclarified resources, NSAI did not perform an economic analysis of these resources; as such, the economic status of these resources is undetermined and there is uncertainty that any portion of the contingent resources disclosed in this new release will be commercially viable to produce.
Glossary
bbl barrels of oil
Mbbl thousand barrels of oil
MMbbl million barrels of oil
Advisory and Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Information
Certain information included in this news release constitutes forward-looking information under applicable securities legislation. Such forward-looking information is for the purpose of explaining management's current expectations and plans relating to the future. Readers are cautioned that reliance on such information may not be appropriate for other purposes, such as making investment decisions. Forward-looking information typically contains statements with words such as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "plan", "intend", "estimate", "propose", "project", "target" or similar words suggesting future outcomes or statements regarding an outlook.
Forward-looking information in this news release includes, but is not limited to, the Company's belief that it has added to the ultimate potential of its portfolio; the anticipated economic life of its portfolio; expectations regarding future cash flow; the expectation that ARO on its December 31, 2024 balance sheet will indicate a reduction of approximately 35% versus December 31, 2023 and more than 50% since first assuming operatorship of its assets; business objectives and targets; organic and inorganic growth opportunities; the anticipated end of life for Valeura's Thailand assets; the potential for adding reserves through the Wassana field redevelopment as well as through ongoing infill development, appraisal drilling, and exploration targets; statements related to the Company's 2025 production guidance of 23.0 - 25.5 Mbbl/d; estimates of the Company's RLI; timing for FID readiness on the potential Wassana field redevelopment; management's anticipation of a higher production profile with longer field life from the Wassana field, should it opt to proceed with the redevelopment; forecast Brent crude oil reference prices; assumption of a single tax filing; estimated costs for the eventual decommissioning of its fields; the intention to disclose a summary of the NSAI 2024 Report to Thailand's upstream regulator; the anticipated filing date of the Company's annual information form along with its estimates of reserves and resources; and the timing of the investor and analyst webcast.
In addition, statements related to "reserves" and "resources" are deemed to be forward-looking information
as they involve the implied assessment, based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the resources can
be discovered and profitably produced in the future.
Although the Company believes the expectations and assumptions reflected in such forward-looking information are reasonable, they may prove to be incorrect.
Forward-looking information is based on management's current expectations and assumptions regarding, among other things: political stability of the areas in which the Company is operating; continued safety of operations and ability to proceed in a timely manner; continued operations of and approvals forthcoming from governments and regulators in a manner consistent with past conduct; ability to achieve extensions to licences in Thailand and Türkiye to support attractive development and resource recovery; future drilling activity on the required/expected timelines; the prospectivity of the Company's lands; the continued favourable pricing and operating netbacks across its business; future production rates and associated operating netbacks and cash flow; decline rates; future sources of funding; future economic conditions; the impact of inflation of future costs; future currency exchange rates; interest rates; the ability to meet drilling deadlines and fulfil commitments under licences and leases; future commodity prices; the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine; the impact of conflicts in the Middle East; royalty rates and taxes; management's estimate of cumulative tax losses being correct; future capital and other expenditures; the success obtained in drilling new wells and working over existing wellbores; the performance of wells and facilities; the availability of the required capital to funds its exploration, development and other operations, and the ability of the Company to meet its commitments and financial obligations; the ability of the Company to secure adequate processing, transportation, fractionation and storage capacity on acceptable terms; the capacity and reliability of facilities; the application of regulatory requirements respecting abandonment and reclamation; the recoverability of the Company's reserves and contingent resources; future growth; the sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out planned activities; the impact of increasing competition; the availability and identification of mergers and acquisition opportunities; the ability to successfully negotiate and complete any mergers and acquisition opportunities; the ability to efficiently integrate assets and employees acquired through acquisitions; global energy policies going forward; international trade policies; future debt levels; and the Company's continued ability to obtain and retain qualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost efficient manner. In addition, the Company's work programmes and budgets are in part based upon expected agreement among joint venture partners and associated exploration, development and marketing plans and anticipated costs and sales prices, which are subject to change based on, among other things, the actual results of drilling and related activity, availability of drilling, offshore storage and offloading facilities and other specialised oilfield equipment and service providers, changes in partners' plans and unexpected delays and changes in market conditions. Although the Company believes the expectations and assumptions reflected in such forward-looking information are reasonable, they may prove to be incorrect.
Forward-looking information involves significant known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Exploration, appraisal, and development of oil and natural gas reserves and resources are speculative activities and involve a degree of risk. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by the Company including, but not limited to: the ability of management to execute its business plan or realise anticipated benefits from acquisitions; the risk of disruptions from public health emergencies and/or pandemics; competition for specialised equipment and human resources; the Company's ability to manage growth; the Company's ability to manage the costs related to inflation; disruption in supply chains; the risk of currency fluctuations; changes in interest rates, oil and gas prices and netbacks; the risk that the Company's tax advisors' and/or auditors' assessment of the Company's cumulative tax losses varies significantly from management's expectations of the same; potential changes in joint venture partner strategies and participation in work programmes; uncertainty regarding the contemplated timelines and costs for work programme execution; the risks of disruption to operations and access to worksites; potential changes in laws and regulations, including international treaties and trade policies; the uncertainty regarding government and other approvals; counterparty risk; the risk that financing may not be available; risks associated with weather delays and natural disasters; and the risk associated with international activity. See the most recent annual information form and management's discussion and analysis of the Company for a detailed discussion of the risk factors.
Certain forward-looking information in this news release may also constitute "financial outlook" within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Financial outlook involves statements about Valeura's prospective financial performance or position and is based on and subject to the assumptions and risk factors described above in respect of forward-looking information generally as well as any other specific assumptions and risk factors in relation to such financial outlook noted in this news release. Such assumptions are based on management's assessment of the relevant information currently available, and any financial outlook included in this news release is made as of the date hereof and provided for the purpose of helping readers understand Valeura's current expectations and plans for the future. Readers are cautioned that reliance on any financial outlook may not be appropriate for other purposes or in other circumstances and that the risk factors described above or other factors may cause actual results to differ materially from any financial outlook.
The forward-looking information contained in this news release is made as of the date hereof and the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless required by applicable securities laws. The forward-looking information contained in this news release is expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
This news release does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction, including where such offer would be unlawful. This news release is not for distribution or release, directly or indirectly, in or into the United States, Ireland, the Republic of South Africa or Japan or any other jurisdiction in which its publication or distribution would be unlawful.
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