Following the publication of Šiauliu Bankas' Q4 2024 and full-year results, Swedbank's independent equity analyst Andrej Radionov raised the target price to EUR 1.2 per share and reiterated a buy recommendation. Separately, sponsored equity research analysts at Estonia's Enlight Research, raised fair value to EUR 1.11 per share, while analysts at Norne Securities, a Norwegian investment bank, maintained their valuation range at EUR 1.03 to EUR 1.28 per share.
| Company | Analyst | Target price | Updated on |
| Swedbank | Andrej Rodionov | 1.20 EUR | 2025-03-03 |
| Enlight Research | Mattias Wallander | 1.11 EUR | 2025-03-12 |
| Norne Securities | Žilvinas Jusaitis | 1.03-1.28 EUR | 2025-02-21 |
Enlight Reaserch key takeaways:
- 2024 was epic for Šiauliu Bankas (soon to be renamed Artea Bankas) with the partial change of anchor stakeholders. Dividend policy payout doubled to minimum 50% from minimum 25%, which, at the time of announcement, almost doubled estimated dividend yield to net 6.4%. This also signified a return to Šiauliu Banks being a dividend stock.
- Buyback program launched with goal to become more capital efficient and achieve a fair valuation of the share. In 2024, the yield from buybacks was 0.7% for a total yield (incl. dividends) of 8.1%. Management of the Bank has announced that the buy-back program could be resumed in May this year.
- Šiauliu Bankas share has rallied 39% (excluding 8.1% dividend/buyback yield) since the completion of stock aquisition agreements on 31 May last year, widely outperforming the Baltic Benchmark Index 9% gain (including dividends). This might be the beginning of a long-term positive trend.
- Valuation is still not demanding with a 2025E P/BV of 1.08x, corresponding to a 37% discount to Baltic peer LHV (1.72x). Given our forecast 2025 ROE of 13.7% (adjusted for extraordinary costs), a fair P/BV multiple for Šiauliu Bankas could be 1.25x, according to our DDM based model.
- This implies a share price of EUR 1.11, indicating a 16% upside. Also worth noting is that bank multiples in other Eastern European markets are higher.
Norne Securities key takeaways:
- The Bank has revised its guidance for the 2025-2029 period, signaling a more ambitious growth outlook. Loan book and deposit targets have been raised compared to previous projections, reflecting greater confidence in the bank's ability to expand its lending and funding base.
- Fee and total operating income expectations have also been revised upward, indicating a stronger anticipated contribution from non-interest income streams. The implied NIM is projected to remain above 3% throughout the forecast period. The upgrades in financial targets are largely driven by better-than-expected 2024 results, which transmit in long-term targets.
- On the cost side, the bank has introduced adjusted figures to reflect a strategic shift in expense recognition. IT-related costs will now be fully expensed rather than capitalized as long-term intangible assets. The bank's minimum payout policy remains unchanged at 50%.
Equity research by analysts is provided on Šiauliu Bankas Investor Relations website.
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Additional information:
Tomas Varenbergas
Head of Investment Management Division
tomas.varenbergas@sb.lt
