Topic: MAX published mixed FY24 numbers roughly in line with our expectations. Further, management released a conservative FY25e guidance due to the cyclical nature of the business and a volatile order intake due to macro-economic insecurity. However, in the long-run the investment case remains fully intact.
FY24 sales declined 7.9% yoy to € 366m (eNuW: € 361m) as a result of investment reluctance due to macroeconomic uncertainties especially in the automotive sector. Q4 sales decreased 13.6% yoy to € 93m (eNuW: € 88m).
Order intake came in at € 314m, 7.9% below last year, leading to a noticeable reduction in order backlog to € 154m (€ 206m in FY23). Demand was in particular soft for bdtronic (-28%) and NSM + Jücker (-25%), both with material exposure to automotive. For instance, new registrations of battery-electric vehicles in Germany recorded a decline of 27% last year. Nevertheless, MAX's largest holding Vecoplan (45% of sales) increased order intake by 7.2% to € 155m thanks to strong demand in the Recycling/Waste segment and despite uncertainties in the North American market.
FY24 EBITDA decreased by 15.3% yoy to € 29.3m (eNuW: € 30.1m) due to a lower top-line and an increase in personnel costs which amounted to 35.2% of total operating performance (vs. 30.1% in FY23). This was despite a positive one-time effect of € 4.5m from a litigation in connection with the sale of NSM Packtec in 2018. The FY EBITDA margin decreased by 0.7ppts yoy to a still solid 8.0% considering the current macro-economic environment. Q4 EBITDA came in at € 4.4m, a 32% decrease yoy (4.7% margin, -1.3ppts). - to be continued -
Bdtronic's sales decreased by only 9.7% yoy to € 94m (eNuW: € 90m) despite a significant drop in order intake during 9M'24 thanks to a strong order backlog at the beginning of the year. Due to the decrease in backlog (€ 34m vs € 52m end of FY23), the FY25e top-line will be more dependent on new demand. Although Q4 showed a solid order intake of € 25m, we remain cautious in the short-term as the uncertainty in the automotive sector is still high and many Tier 1 supplier and OEMs hesitate to invest in larger projects. EBITDA decreased sharply by 75% yoy burdened by an increase in headcount (559 employees on average vs. 480 in FY23), a high share of external personnel and project delays which resulted in higher costs in the impregnation segment. However, costly external personnel which was hired in FY23 in response to the rapid increase in demand was significantly reduced during FY24e and will not be a material factor for FY25e. Further, the delayed and unprofitable projects in the impregnation segment should only contribute slightly to sales in the current year. Thus, we are cautiously optimistic about bdtronic's profitability this year. - to be continued -
Vecoplan's sales came in at € 165m, 7.5% below last year created by investment reluctance in the North American market (44% of FY24 sales) and project delays. On a positive note, order intake rose by 7.2% yoy thanks to a market recovery in the Recycling/Waste segment. EBITDA decreased by 14.2% yoy to € 17.5m due to an increase in headcount and an unfavorable product mix. Going into FY25e, we expect a stable top-line (eNuW: € 169m) and EBITDA development (€ 18m).
FY25e guidance: Management released a broad guidance range for FY25e which reflects the lower visibility for H2'25e due to a lower order backlog as well as the currently unpredictable economic policy in the US. Sales are expected to come in between € 340-400m (eNuW: € 364m) and EBITDA between € 21-28m (eNuW: € 24.9m), which looks plausible in our view.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 7.00, based on DCF.
Source: NuWays; Company data
ISIN: DE000A2DA588
