FY24 preliminary sales came in at a mere € 16.9m, implying a 70% yoy decline (falling short of our € 33.2m estimate) as a result of a strongly declined sentiment across the company's most important end markets, storage solutions and mobility. The latter was strongly impacted by weakened demand for end products (e.g. electric mini buses), falling battery prices with the resulting "wait and see" mentality of customers but also several insolvencies. Preliminary Q4 sales stood at only € 4.5m, down 78% yoy.
FY24 prelim. EBITDA was negative at € -4.2m as a result of the negative operating leverage but also development work for the new chemistry cells, especially NMC+ (eNuW ~ € 1.5m). The € 1.9m positive EBITDA figure in Q4 can be explained by book gains related to the divestment of LION's stake in TÜV SÜD Battery testing. Also, during the earnings call, management highlighted renegotiated supplier contracts, which positively impacted the group's gross margin and should be sustainable going forward.
Good start into the year. Positively, it seems like the company has passed the market's trough as reflected by the good start into the year with € 6.4m sales (vs. € 1.2m in Q1 2024) and a "clearly positive EBITDA" (vs. € -2.6m in Q1 2024). This positive momentum is expected to persist throughout FY25 as management guides for € 28-35m sales (eNuW: € 32m) and positive EBITDA (eNuW: break-even).
Portfolio expansion ongoing. LION will deliver first orders of its new higher energy density battery pack (NMC+) in April, with a further ramp up throughout 2025. With this, the company will also introduce "narrow packs", increasing the addressable markets. During the earnings call, management also presented a new project. As per request from a major German truck OEM, LION is working on a 540kWh battery for trucks that can charge >400km range within the legally required 15 minute break of truck drivers.
Immersion cooled batteries retain game changer potential. With last year's Q3 results, management shared promising testing results of the "LIGHT Battery". Despite some delays (potential series application), the prospects remain significant. Targeting only PHEV and BEV cars with > € 100k selling prices, the market should reach up to € 1.4bn by 2030. Assuming further positive testing results, first small test-volumes could already impact LION's 2026 P&L, in our view. This should serve as proof-of-concept and hence justify the inclusion within our long-term growth estimates.
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ISIN: CH0560888270
