It was about time, but 10 weeks before the start of the inaugural 32-team Club World Cup in the US, FIFA finally released details on the prize money distribution. In detail:
As previously communicated, total prize money amounts to $ 1bn, of which $ 525m is allocated to starting fees and $ 475m to the performance pillar. The winner of the tournament could receive up to $ 126m. Yet, we expect BVB's total prize money rather at $ 51m. Here is a detailed explanation of our estimate:
Starting fee: FIFA announced that, European clubs are set to receive a starting fee in the range $ 12.8-38.2m. Given the strength of the participating clubs, we would position BVB in the middle, hence taking the average $ 25.5m as our estimte for BVB's starting fee.
Performance pillar: For every game won in the group stage, teams receive $ 2m, while every draw generates $ 1m. We conservatively expect BVB to win two games and achieve one draw, resulting in $ 5m. Moreover, this would almost certainly make BVB the winner of their group, resulting in another $ 7.5m for reaching the round of 16. Here, BVB would face the 2nd placed team of group E, which is likely to be River Plate from Argentina (based on squad value). BVB should be the clear favourite in this duel, which is why we expect them to reach the quarterfinals, generating another $ 13.1m. Here, the team would likely face Real Madrid, a team that should be too much of a hurdle for BVB. However, it is not yet clear how seriously teams will take the tournament. Especially for Real Madrid, where coach Ancelotti once even claimed they would refuse to take part. Hence, it remains to be seen if Ancelotti brings his first squad in the possible quarterfinal matchup. A potential semifinal would generate additional $ 21m prize money. Mind you, as BVB's round of 16 match would be on July 1, we attribute the prize money for the knock-out stage entirely into FY25/26e.
This is positive new for the club, as the chances for FY25/26e UCL qualification are declining. Despite a second win in a row in Freiburg, BVB is still trailing the top-4 by 5 points, with only six games to go. The prize money for the CWC would hereby partly make up for failing the UCL qualification. This should bode well for BVB in order to put together a strong squad in the summer, which will be able to requalify for the 2026/27 UCL season.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.20 based on DCF. - continued -
FIFA CWC overview and estimate clarification
Source: NuWays Research, FIFA
ISIN: DE0005493092
